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Week 3, 2023 NCAAF College Football Betting details:

  • Last week was a loss with lots of disappointing games and numerous thunderstorm delays.
    • That Viriginia loss was a heartbreaker.
  • I have the new model in place. See details in Model setup below.

Season Results:

*Thru Wk2 – 9/9/23

  • ML/Spreads: 30-30-1 | -2.05 units | -2.3% ROI
  • Round Robin Parlays: 41-175 | -0.65 units | -7.4% ROI
  • Total profit: -2.70 units | -2.8% ROI

Unit sizes:

  • Week 2 the unit sizes are set to 2 units a bet.
    • 48.6 games of churn
    • Leveling up at +50 profit units on the season
    • Leveling down at -20 units profit on the season

Round Robin Parlays:

I’ll try to include the full slate of a card into a RR package equal to 10% of the main card’s total wager amount.

I will also look to increase this ratio if profitability continues upward.

The Model:

Check out my commentary in Sunday’s Card week 1 for full details on the model. Currently I’m running the power rankings based on Recruit Star talent and before Saturday’s games I’ll have an adjustment factor in place to account for season results so far. The adjustor has worked quite well in MLB and I’ll use it here to evaluate differences in team talent composition to results based on Strength of Schedule. I’ve got some heavy duty ideas so unfortunately tonight’s games will not have the changes to the model ready.

I took the baseline of the Recruit Star talent level one I had and then added an Adjustor factor . The new model works where each week the teams are moved up or down in Talent Level performance based on their acheivement to expected performance in the previous week’s games.

  • For Example:
    • Last Week the model gave Idaho a 45% chance at winning. Instead they won by 27 which was a Margin of Victory 31.7 higher than the talent level would’ve suggested alone. I refer to this Margin Performance as their achievement.
    • As a result they are getting 2 times 31.7 Talent Level added to their current baseline. On the Reverse their opponent Nevada is losing that much due to the underperformance.
    • In order to keep the probabilities above 0% I make sure to give each team a bare minimum talent level at 25 so that the formula doesn’t get too wonky. In order to achieve this I add a constant factor each week where I identify the worst College team based on adjusted talent level and figure out how many points it would take to get them to 25 and add that constant to every team. This past week it was Texas Southern and to get them to 25 each team needed 27 points added.
    • This adjustment occurs each week so as the season goes on the model will have a better representation of each team’s expected performance.

Betting Cards:

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Completed Cards for the Week:

Saturday 9/16/23:

Evening Card:

  • There are 10 games on the Evening card
    • 1 ML Bet
    • 9 Spread bets
      • Stony Brook +1200: This seems like a massive misvalue here based on the model.
      • As I’ve highlighted in the Model I give team’s adjustments each week based on weekly performances.
      • Stony Brook has not played any FBS schools all season so I’ve not tracked them, but they are getting the constant bonuses for the minimum team performance each week.
      • Arkansas State on the other hand has been getting massive downgrades where they got blown out by Oklahoma St by 73 points and Memphis by 34.
        • Either Arkansas State’s two oppenents are way better than expected or Arkansas State is way worse. This week will tell, but I like the shot for Stony Brook to steal a win at massive value.
    • The Round Robin got weird due to some technical issues and as a result I placed 2 different ones
  • DK RR Card:
    • 28 combinations of 2 game parlays of $0.65 each/ $18.20
    • Things got a little weird here and when I went to do the RR I clicked keep the same bets from earlier in the slip, but somehow Tarleton slipped out. As a result they will not participate in the RR card. Also DK didn’t have the Stony Brook ML so the Spread bet for the game was used here.
  • FD RR Card:
  • 28 combinations of 2 game parlays of $0.54 each/ $15.12
    • FD is the only book I have access to that had the Stony Brook ML at +1200. I wanted to get this key piece in a RR to take advantage of the leverage opportunites as I believe this game has a high liklihood of hitting. So I got the 8 games here with ML for Stony Brook and FD didn’t have the Tarleton game.

Round Robin Units Profit: -$16.54 / -1.65 Units

Afternoon Card:

  • There are 14 games on the Afternoon card, check back later for the Evening Card (6PM + games)
    • 1 ML Bet
    • 13 Spread bets
    • The Round Robin is set to 91 combinations of 2 game parlays of $0.31 each/ $28.21 for ~10% leverage.

Round Robin Units Profit: -$10.74 / -1.07 Units

Saturday Total:

Round Robin Units Profit: -$27.28 / -2.73 Units

  • Total Profit = -$139.94 / -13.99 Units

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Friday 9/15/23:

  • There are 2 games on the card tonight
    • 1 ML Bet
    • 1 Spread bet
    • The Round Robin is set to a single parlay of $4 for 10% leverage.
    • The Service Acadamies complete their trifecta of performance to start Week 3 tonight.
      • I still have not adjusted the model yet, but it will be done before the start of tomorrow’s games.
      • Navy put up a fight yesterday, but I’m still not convinced that the Service Acadamies have the talent to compete at the level the books hype them at. Let’s see if the model and its foundation are right and take a shot at the Moneyline for Utah State at +260 against Air Force tonight.
        • Commentary from yesterday about the Service Acadamies:
          • The Service Acadamies including Army & Air Force with Navy cause me concern due to them having 0 star talent according to 247 sports. I’ve given them each the equivalent of 10 3-star recruits based on their military discipline, but I do believe the adjustor once in place will help shape a better narrative of what to expect from these schools. Tread cautiously is all I’m highlighting here until I get the new model in place.

Round Robin Units Profit: -$4.00 / -0.40 Units

  • Total Profit = -$44.00 / -4.40 Units

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Thursday 9/14/23:

  • There are 2 games on the card tonight
    • 2 Spread bets
    • The Round Robin is set to a single parlay of $4 for 10% leverage.
    • Navy is a team that concerns me as the model looks at Recruit Star talent.
      • The Service Acadamies including Army & Air Force with Navy cause me concern due to them having 0 star talent according to 247 sports. I’ve given them each the equivalent of 10 3-star recruits based on their military discipline, but I do believe the adjustor once in place will help shape a better narrative of what to expect from these schools. Tread cautiously is all I’m highlighting here until I get the new model in place.

Round Robin Units Profit: -$4.00 / -0.40 Units

  • Total Profit = -$5.82 / -0.58 Units

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By Taylor Moore

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