The Charles Schwab Challenge 2023 Card Summary:
- This week the field of golfers is semi-elite.
- The Top 25 players this week average a rank of 23 on the model
- This week’s card will focus on Top 5 placements due to the semi-elite competition of the field
- The card features 7 player picks to finish in the Top 5 for a total of 7 Units wagered.
- The goal this week is to get at least 2 hits for ~57% ROI at a minimum
- 5 of the players return all the card’s units wagered or more
Daily updates: Round 2 Complete
- Not a good day 2. 3 players were cut and the closest Top 5 player is Max Homa with -4 strokes, which is 3 out of the current Top 5 at -7.
- Need a big rally on Saturday from the remaining players on the card or there will be no hope going into Sunday.
_________________________
Recap:
- The PGA Championshp last week was a complete failure.
- The overall result was a loss of -11.75 Units for -100% ROI
- Learnings: The field was too elite for Top 10. Variance kicked in as expected, but none of the players selected for the card ended in Top 10. However 4 of them did end up in Top 20.
- Corey Conners had a most terrible Sunday, going +5 to go from a 2nd place start to a T12 finish on the day.
The Field:
Bet Target – Decision on Top 5s:
- Looking at Top 25 players in the model, as thats where the picks chosen each week often lie, the players modeled in this grouping average 23.0 on the Model’s Rankings.
- Last week’s Top 25 modeled championship field was 4.5 with LIV players and 9.6 without them. The field was quite elite.
- The Top 25 in the Byron Nelson the week prior was 32.2, I did Top 5s and the card failed for what I blame having too much slack in the net of selections. I chose 12 players to cover 5 possible slots.
- The Wells Fargo two weeks prior had a Top 25 player ranking average of 12.6 and Top 10s were bet successfully that week for profit.
__________________________
___________________________
Players to Target and Odds:
- Top 5s are tough to hit due to the limited winning slots. The smaller net size this week will also be correspond with a smaller unit total bet on the card due to the smaller window. I wanted the card to pay decent profit on any two and mostly breakeven if just 1 hits.
The final cut:
- Based on the failures of the Byron Nelson card knew I wanted the final selection count to be about 7. A little slack in the net, but not too much
- An overshoot of 40% might be a tad high, but the last two selections cover the expected profit amount from any of other 5 hitting a combination of two so this extra risk seems worth it.
- The minimum starting point of odds was +400 and under 25 in the Model’s projected rankings.
The end result is the card below with 7 picks. As alway added Taylor Moore because I always have to bet on myself and Ryan Fox kept the full unit despite the low event count to his name.
My overall goal with each card is to achieve about 50-100% ROI, and anything above that is outstanding.
Top 50 Players playing The Charles Schwab 2023 based on Model Rankings:
.
______
Golf not your thing or looking for insights into other sports betting topics? Be sure to check out my latest MLB Bet Tracking.
