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As a recap you can check out the full review of my initial lane setups and how my analysis of the state of the GOP primaries have progressed:

State of the Primary:

The final debate before the first votes are cast in Iowa is upon us. Things seemed dull heading into the 4th debate as the news cycle had been rather quiet for the candidates, but heading into the 5th they are getting heated. Trump still maintains his lock on the top of the field, but things are more precarious than ever as rulings in Colorado and Maine disqaulified him from the Primary in each state. The Supreme Court has taken up the Colorado case and if the case is upheld it most likely means that Trump will be disqualified from the office of President making his lead in the GOP primary moot. The Supreme Court wont be hearing the case until February so that’s all I will comment on that for now.

In other news Haley has started to climb up in the polls and is starting to give MAGA world a scare as she’s starting to become a legitimate threat in their eyes. Haley has all but consolidated the Establishment lane voting. Christie is still in the race, but he realistically has no shot to surpass Haley at this point. He’s fading away in the race, proof by him not being qualified for tonight’s debate, but his presence is still strong in the race which I’m starting to think is a good thing for Haley. The Primary is a marathon not a sprint and Iowa and New Hampshire are just the start of the show, when it comes to voting. Christie will surely hurt Haley in those two races if he’s still around by voting time, but in the grand scheme of things those missing votes in those states will mean very little to Haley’s long term prospects.

I deemed the Establishment as the winner in the last debate and it was mainly thanks to Christie coming to the defense of Haley against DeSantis and Vivek, Something you rarely see in politics these days, especially in an intraparty primary, where an opponent props up one of their rivals. Christie did that in the last debate and that’s why I believe when the time is right Christie will step aside for Haley, but not before his work is done. Christie stated his main goal to jump in the race was to stop Trump and being on the debate stages gave him that opportunity. Unfortunately Christie did not qualify for the Iowa debate, but he may make a brief reappearance if one is held before New Hampshire. The longer he can continue to make the case against Trump the better Haley and to an extent DeSantis and Vivek are, if he can continue to chip away at Trump’s standing in the party. Christie is still the loudest dog in the race barking against Trump and his antics post the 2020 election and if he can get Haley and DeSantis to start doing that then he can declare Mission Accomplished.

DeSantis is starting to realize that the gloves need to come against Trump and being a defender of his is not going to work to leap over him in the Primary. There’s the hope that the Supreme Court can knock Trump out of the race altogether, but hope is never a winning strategy. DeSantis is starting to become a bit more boisterous in declaring Trump unfit for office, but it may be too little too late on his end to turn it into a winning strategy. It’s the right thing to do, but if he really wanted a shot he should’ve been doing it a lot earlier in the race. To be fair Haley has also been a bit light on Trump, but she’s not been shy to call out some things a lot earlier in the debate season.

Lastly of the contenders left, we have Vivek who is also on the sidelines tonight with Christie and long-forgotten but still allegedly kicking Asa. Vivek’s campaign got out of the gate hot to start the debate season, but he’s just been going down hill ever since. Vivek really hit the rails in the last debate when he saw that he was running out of fuel to win that he decided to pivot and go Kennedy style. RFK jr style that is, and start spewing out the wild conspiracy ideas he has on a national debate stage. Vivek proclaimed that J6 was an inside job and was quickly shut down for going so off topic. Vivek’s race is on it’s last ropes and I would forsee him being all but forgotten after New Hampshire votes. It’s doubtful we see Vivek again on any future debate stages.

Here are the current lane rankings:

As I stated in the State of the Primary, Nikki has consolidated the Establishment lane. She might not be the loudest voice against Trump, but Christie can only be a cheerleader for her at this point. He’s basically signalled that is what he wants to do, but she hasn’t fully proven herself to him. Until she does that then only would he be able to completely cheer for her.

Debate #5 – Candidate Profiles:

Donald Trump:

Interestingly Trump is making an appearance tonight, but it’s not on the main debate stage. Knowing that the race is dwindling down to a few candidates he needs to continue to keep the attacks of his opponents out of his direction. The main debate features just Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantist and most suredly they are going to talk about Trump and why one of them should be chosen over him. What better way to prevent potential voters from hearing those attacks by distracting viewers with his own counterprogamming. Trump will be doing a townhall on Fox News at the same time as the debate with Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum. Bret is no slouch and Trump is not a real fan of his so this town hall could prove entertaining in itself. To me it’s doubtful Trump goes the full time without storming off in disgust. Also he’s at risk to say a lot of things that could put him in peril with the courts, so this could truly be some great counterprogramming unlike the Twitter ones with Tucker, if anyone really watched those.

What he needs to do to win tonight: Keep his cool with Bret and not say anything to be used in the cases against him. Also hope that Haley and DeSantis can keep the fighting between themselves when they debate.

Ron DeSantis:

Ron has to continue to call out Trump if he wants to have a shot at taking him down. He will never pass him if he doesn’t convincingly go after Trump and present himself as a much better candidate. DeSantis may be debating Haley, but with Trump above him in the America First Lane there is no real point in going after Haley. He can try to take her down, but with no other viable Establishment candidate in sight he may create the opening for a Liz Cheney/ Romney 3rd Party run if he knocks Haley out of the race. Also to note he’s not guaranteed to take the crown if Trump does get disqualified by Supreme Court. This may be why he’s been kind of light. Vivek seems to attract more of Trump’s base than DeSantis, but the only reason Vivek is so far down in the polls right now is because Trump is still in the race. DeSantis is a very odd position, he’s out of the race as long as Trump is qualified, but that’s a question very much in debate the next few months.

What he needs to do to win tonight: He has two paths to victory at this point. Play friend to Trump and hope he takes the crown if his kingdom falls in the courtrooms or somehow find a way to naturally leap above him in the polls. The natural leap isn’t going to happen, but that’s all he can attempt tonight. So my suggestion is that he tout his winning governor policies and stop grimacing awkwardly like the Gentlemen from the Hush episode of Buffy.

Nikki Haley:

Christie is all but gone and Nikki is the de facto champion of the Establishment Lane. She needs to call out Trump and condemn him as an unqualified candidate. If she can’t make that case then she will just merge onto the America First lane and be left to hope that Trump’s crown falls by the hands of the Supreme Court. Unlike Ron she has a winning pathway outside of the Supreme Court, the question is if she can rise to task and take it. Christie wants her to do it, but if not all is lost for the GOP and it’s hopes to purge itself of Trump through the ballot box of their own Primary.

What she needs to do to win tonight: She needs to be more forceful in calling out Trump. She can take some jabs at DeSantis as he is her only debate opponent, but he’s just a pawn in the way. Trump is the one that looms large over this field and to win she needs consolidate any leftover support that she can. She’s mopped up the Establishment lane early, now she needs to work on getting any other scraps that she can.

This concludes the Debate #5 State of Union of the GOP Primary. Trump is on very shaky ground as we head into the last debate before Iowa. Can he avoid falling into a trap of his own making in a way to counter the debate of DeSantis and Haley who would otherwise get more media coverage without such conterprogamming. I will be flipping back and forth between each to see the fireworks unfold as both should be quite entertaining and could have great consequences for where the Primary goes from here.

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By Taylor Moore

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