As a recap you can check out the full review of my initial lane setups and how my analysis of the state of the GOP primaries have progressed:
Preamble:
These debates are becoming more and more meaningless for the public, but so crucial for the remaining candidates to do anything to save their campaigns from the Big Freeze from whence their poll numbers sputter out.
This will be the last debate of the year and the 2nd last one before the first round of voting kicks off in Iowa. It’s not really voting, but a popularity contest not just for the candidates but neighbors who can provide the best cookies in Iowa (It’s an absurd system in my opinion, the caucus format, but more on that next month).
Debate #2- review:
I write these just before the start of the upcoming debate so I’m going off vague memory of what I recall from the prior month. Which is probably a good calibration of highligting the best moments from the debates.
I recall three things that stood out in the third debate.
Tim Scott had his girlfriend appear on stage in what seemed to be the most shocking moment of the night. It ended up being so great of a reveal that Tim Scott decided he had done enough this cycle and opted to announce a suspension of his campaign a week later.
There were quite a few barbs flying around about people wearing heels and it all seemed to go over Ron DeSantis’s head as neither he nor I could tell if it was directed between just Vivek and Nikki or slight jabs at Ron and his mysterious shoes.
Lastly as I’ve listed at the beginning here, Donald Trump won the debate. Amazing for a guy that wasn’t even on stage, but I listed that the #1 thing everyone had to do last debate was to attack Trump and show why they were the better option. Instead the candidates here focused on infighting with one another and Trump was able to keep his name off stage for most of the debate.
Nobody did anything to change the perception of their candicacy nor show why they should be the frontrunner over Trump. Instead it boiled down to personal attacks between those onstage. It was the best debate outcome Trump could’ve hoped for after he spent most of his time in a New York courtroom last month.
Let’s take a look at last month’s lane rankings:
Now here’s this month’s new lane rankings:
There is not much shake up since last debate. Tim Scott dropped out and Burgum did so a few days ago.
Establishment seems to be a good name for the lane Christie and Haley are in as that’s the lane Trump supporters are apt to use for them.
The Also Rans is a better name for the dead end lane because even if they were against Trump or somewhat for him, they were going nowhere, Asa is the last major candidate in this lane and I would venture that Chris Christie is next to join him. I would have Christie over there now, but he is still firmly in the Establishment lane because his presence is holding back Haley from consolidating support there.
Trump leads the America First lane as he has all cycle, but I think DeSantis has taken back the #2 spot from Vivek. Nothing groundbreaking here it just seems Vivek has fallen out of the news cycle since the last debate and his debut in Primary #1 looks more and more like his apex each day.
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Debate #4 – Candidate Profiles:
America First Lane:
Donald Trump:
I’m a broken record here, but he’s not showing up to the debates and he wins by keeping the rest of the GOP fractured. The more he can avoid a straigt up race against a single candidate then the majority of the work is done for him as the remaining candidates muddy themselves.
What he needs to do to win tonight: Keep his name off stage
Ron DeSantis:
Ron had a debate out of nowhere last week against Gavin Newsom. I’m not sure how that keeps in good standing with the rules of not having extraneous debates outside the GOP sanctioned ones, but he had it in what was clearly an attempt to jump his polling towards Trump’s level. It was a home court match on Fox News with Hannity moderating (if one can be so generous to call it that). Those on Fox News will say DeSantis won the debate without question and those who live in reality know the truth. Also quite telling when Hannity egged Newsom on to debate more and Newsom said he was game for another hour and then cut to break and Hannity said they both had to leave. I think Hannity and DeSantis weren’t prepared to go any further and called it quits.
What he needs to do to win tonight: He’s sharing a lane with Vivek and Trump. He needs to take the lead of that pack or see Vivek drop out if he wants to get anywhere near Trump in polling. I would suggest he take chops at Vivek and Trump or risk being overshadowed by Trump in this lane until next summer. He can try to wedge himself as an opposite to Haley, but he’s gone too far to the culture warrior side of American First that if Haley drops not too much of her support will shake his way. Also he needs to stop grimacing so uncomfortably whenever he’s mentioned by the opposition.
Vivek Ramaswamy:
Vivek’s was hot on the scene and the new politician in Debate #1, but he’s faded into obscurity since then. There’s been no good trail moments besides a hit and run incident by a woman backing out of a diner or something that he tried to portray as something more sinister. I just don’t know where else he can go besides down in polling from here.
What he needs to do to win tonight: He has the same battle plan as Ron, he needs to take Ron down to force a choice between him and Trump or else the America First lane is Trump’s to dominate. He’ll likely continue to go after Haley to his own detriment while providing Haley plenty of opportunity to get words in when it’s not her question.
Establishment Lane:
Nikki Haley:
Tim Scott dropping out is probably the best thing that could’ve happend for Haley. That leaves just Christie as the only Establishment figure left for her to consolidate polling numbers. Also if she makes it to South Carolina she has the potential to pull a Biden 2020 and use it as a springboard in the Primary. It’s her home turf and her polling looks strong enough to get her there. She’s by no means favored to win yet as Trump leads the pack everywhere and there with just shy of 50%. However I’m pretty sure if Christie and Scott are both out before they vote in South Carolina she could have the numbers to challenge Trump for the electors there.
What she needs to do to win tonight: She really needs Christie to get out of it before voting starts in Iowa. She can play nice, but push the issue that he’s hurting his cause of trying to stop Trump if he remains in the race. I don’t see it going the other way around where Christie can consolidate enough of the Establishment lane if Haley were to be the one to drop. In my opinion she is the GOPs only hope at this juncture in the race to give Trump a true challenge. Liz Cheney recently announced a possible jump in to assist, but it may be something she does after the Primary’s heat up as a 3rd Party No Labels Run with Manchin or Romney. For now though it’s Haley or bust for the Estabishment lane of the GOP.
Chris Christie:
He’s starting to look more like an obstruction these days then the voice he said would be there to take down Trump. He blocked the GW bridge to New York City and he may block the Establishment lane for Haley to the White House. He gave some backwards logic reasoning last month on how he had a path to the nomination invovling both him and Haley losing the first three states, but try to ask me how that works out as he couldn’t really explain it either.
What he needs to do to win tonight: Keep the pressure on Trump. Truly present the argument he said he would in to why Trump needs to be blocked from the GOP nomination. There is no path forward for him to surpass Haley and Trump and everyone else in the America First lane, he is a step away from the Also Ran lane, but is currently an obstruction to Haley at this point.
This concludes the Debate #4 State of Union of the GOP Primary. Trump is looking stronger than ever heading into it as the news cycle has been somewhat quiet on his campaign while the other candidates are sort of just lingering in place. Haley has all but mopped up the Establishment Lane to force a 1 v America First choice. All candidates need to present why they should be the nominee and why Trump should not be, otherwise they’ll all languish in his shadow when the votes start rolling in.
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