As a recap you can check out the full review of my initial Lane setups in the Debate #1 writeup along with my pre-debate analysis of Debate #2.
Preamble:
These debates seem meaningless and for the most part they are, but they are very crucial for laggards in the polls to do something to stand out. Donald Trump is doing the smart thing by staying off the stage as he’s the man to beat and he knows it. Also likely per advice of his lawyers, which it’s doubtful he’d follow on their opinion alone, he’s avoiding these debates to avoid being prompted to reveal anything further incriminating to his cases. Trump as a whole is a separate topic, but looms large over every debate this year.
For the other candidates to suceed they have to make the case for why the rest of the Republican Party should ditch Trump and back them instead. Easier said than done when the guy refuses to show up, but surprisingly he continues to hold strong support in his party despite the numerous pending trials against him along with the 2020 loss (I know debatable to some). The guy is a mountain and nothing is moving him off the perch of being the GOP’s nominee.
I’ve stated before in past reviews that there is only two paths to victory here for a GOP nominee to usurp Trump. He either has to become so toxic to the GOP that those in the Trump Lane under him can pick up his mantle or a 2nd lane has to emerge to show that they can carry the party to victory without Trump’s brand of politics.
Debate #2- review:
In order to assess what to expect for Debate #3 we need to review what has occurred previously. I stated in Debate #2 that Nikki Haley appeared to jump ship from the Traditionalist/We Like Trump Lane, led by Mike Pence at the time. She moved over to Chris Christie’s lane of the Anti-Trumps in my opinion or was working her way there. Unfortunately Haley didn’t seem to capitalize further in Debate #2 to keep the opposition to Trump going.
Debate #2 was a failure all around for all candidates on the stage that night. None of them made any impressive inroads in my opinion to swipe Trump off his mantle. If I’m forced to award a winner it would be Tim Scott and how adamant he was that we all go and search Youtube for Nikki Haley Curtains. The guy was no friend to his fellow South Carolinian in the debate.
I will say Ron DeSantis showed off some marginal leadership when he shut down the final question to ask each candidate to state who’d they vote off the primary stage. It was going to get really entertaining and my dude Christie was ready to vote. This knocks DeSantis down even further for me, just because he ruined what could’ve been the most salvagable moment of the debate.
Alas, there was no real winner in Debate #2 because the trajectory didn’t really change for any of the candidates and Trump didn’t get chipped away.
Let’s take a look at last month’s lane rankings:
Now here’s this month’s new lane rankings:
I’m condensing the lanes down. I’ve stated there will always be two main lanes to face off in the end and it looks like it’s shaping up to be the America First platform candidates vs the Moderate Opposition,
Vivek Ramaswamy calls his brand America First which I’m apt to apply to him, Trump, and DeSantis as all three have similar populist type messages.
Moderate Opposition is hard for me to put a name down, but this is what I have for now. They are candidates that want the Republican Party to move beyond Trump and his brand of politics. They’re more of the traditional Bush era Republicans you would expect, but with some opposition to their fellow Republicans they deem too extreme.
Lastly we have the Moderate Trump Supporters. These guys are too naive to realize that the politics they’ve grown accustomed to in the Bush/Obama era isn’t the same that’s going to fly in the post 2016 Trump era. They lack the rizz (Charisma as the youth these day say it) and it shows. It also doesn’t help when they keep singing Trump’s praises and refusing to forcefully push back on him. They have nowhere to go but out of the primary.
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The Candidates:
Donald Trump:
He’s not on stage tonight, but I have a feeling this will be his night to shine and not in a good way. The earlier rounds forced candidates to introduce themselves, but now we have a solid five left and almost half being anti-Trump in some form there’s a good chance he’ll get a lot of attention. The drama of his New York court cases are heating up as he took the stand this week. Along with big elections on Tuesday night that saw Ohio legalize abortion, Kentucky re-elect a Democratic governor against his endorsed candidate of Daniel Cameron, and Virginia State Legislature turning blue in both houses.
When he won in 2016 he said “We’re gonna win so much you’re gonna get tired of winning.” I got to ask all the Republicans out there, are you tired yet? A 2016 supermajority turned into a Democratic one in 2020 and the 2022 midterm Red Wave was just a whimper.
Do you you really want to take your chances in a rematch against Biden?
What he needs to do to win tonight: Keep his name off stage
Vivek Ramaswamy:
Vivek’s been attacked hard since his first debate debut and it’s starting to wear him down it seems. He’s like Trump, but has no accomplishments of his own outside of business to tout. Also he’s an easy target for Christie and Haley as the Trump effigy on stage. The America First brand he said belongs o no one and he’s trying to take it from Trump by not bashing him too hard, but unless Trump faills there is no path forward for him.
What he needs to do to win tonight: He needs Trump to lose, but he’s not actively going to attack him. So he’s more or less doomed as he continues to take punches from the opposition. If he can organize a really stellar policy plan or something that may be his saving grace, but it’s extemely doubtful he debuts anything that’s new and earth shattering.
Ron DeSantis:
Like Vivek he’s lost in the water. He can only look up and see Trump, but he can’t move forward as long as Trump stands there. He’s part of the America First firebrand platform and he can work to take down Vivek to leave Trump’s crumbling kingdom to fall upon him alone, but things are not looking good for this once strong contender for 2024. There’s also weird rumors about him wearing platform boots with heels or something. Could be interesting if Christie asks to check those boots out.
What he needs to do to win tonight: He’s in the same boat as Vivek. He needs Trump to lose, but he’s not actively going to attack him. So he’s also doomed as he continues to take punches from the opposition. He can only hope the court cases and polticial opposition such as election results under Trump’s endorsements will let the pieces of America First fall into his lap.
Nikki Haley:
Haley’s been making ground it seems based on recent polling data. She needs to make an active leap into the opposition of Trump camp with Christie and she has a real chance to pull off the upset. Trump’s taking punches and tonight is her opportunity to really go after him and present her case for Republican party after Trump.
What she needs to do to win tonight: Attack Trump and show a path forward, a path that leads to Republican wins not losses.
Chris Christie:
The original Trump opposition (Sorry Asa). He jumped in the race saying his one goal was to stop Trump. As the loudest voice of that charge he’s gaining ground or treading water in the primary. Haley’s poised to take over the anti-trump voice here, but he doesn’t mind losing if it means Trump loses also. He’s against both the America First firebrands of Vivek and DeSantis and that leaves him plenty of opposition to upon which release his ire.
What he needs to do to win tonight: Keep chopping away at Trump. He probably won’t turn too much on Haley, but Vivek and DeSantis will get most of his wrath which is a win for him as the field continues to narrow. Although at some point he’ll have to find a way to surpass Haley again in the opposition camp.
Tim Scott:
He was the most active in Debate #2 and will have to continue down that path as he’s most likely the next one out.
What he needs to do to win tonight: Keep chopping away at Trump (notice the theme here, everyone needs to do this). He’s not actively against Trump or for Trump, so he’s just playing Switzerland in a Republican party that wants nothing to do with neutrality.
In Memoriam:
- Mike Pence recently ended his campaign. As a former Vice President this is shocking, but also expected as he was also going up against the President he served under. Part of the old political class that had no chance in the Post Trump era of politics.
- Perry Johnson. Who? A businessman who declared but who never made the stage. Gone and still forgotten.
Asa Hutchinson and Doug Burgum are more or less officially out, they just don’t know it.
This concludes the Debate #3 State of Union of the GOP Primary. Hopefully it will be more entertaining than the last one.
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