Last month I did a review of each candidate and assigned them speciific lanes based on how I viewed they were positioned. The full review of my initial Lane setups can be found in my Debate #1 writeup.
Not much has changed to the landscape of candidates since the 1st debate and too be honest it was pretty boring to watch. I didn’t really have much to say about it so I never got around to writing a post debate report. To me Haley came out the winner, but before you immediately dismiss the rest of this post here let me recap what I’m doing here.
Previously I had mentioned that I’m viewing this from an analytical perspective, but with politics it’s near impossible to not have your biases show. If you check out the previous Debate writeup I mention how I classify myself more of an indendent, but I’ve never put a vote down for a GOP candidate for president. I’ve done it for congress and senate seats in the past, but when the rare big vote comes up no GOP candidate for president was able to earn my vote. I would love to see the GOP suceeed as a counterbalance to one party rule which is where we are headed if the GOP continues to push the electorate away. I’ve often found myself following the GOP primaries more than the Democratic ones as only 2008 and 2020 were the only two real free for alls on the Democrat side. While it seems like every cycle starting 2008 has been competitively open for the GOP. It’s a fun one to follow for sure.
Now why do I believe that Haley won, well thats because she changed my perception. Debates don’t mean anything if a perception hasn’t changed. Voters like their candidate of choice and appreciate seeing them make fools of their opposition, but you didn’t really accomplish much unless you change the perception. Yes Trump is still the heavy favorite by far to win the GOP primaries, but he wasn’t there and even if he was he wasn’t going to change the perception for most voters. You either like him or you don’t, it’s kind of hard to be undecided on your views of him at this point. But back to Haley, she changed my perception of her and that’s why she came away as the winner last month in the debate. It doesn’t mean I think she’s now the favorite to win, but only that she won the debate by presenting herself as a stronger candidate to gain ground as the primary cycle heats up.
Below is the Debate #2 Power Rankings by me. I make no qualms that I’m actively rooting for the Traditionalist/ Anti-Trump lane here, but I present the rankings of the Lanes based on how I believe their strength will converge by the end of the primaries and where I think each candidate is positioned within each. The Primaries consist of Lanes within the party and each candidate is part of a lane. By the end of the Primaries an ideology/lane will emerge victorious and the preferred candidate of that ideology/lane will have led in votes.
Nikki Haley last month was in the Traditionalist/ We Like Trump lane last month as number 2 there behind Mike Pence in that lane. This is a good thing that she jumped ship, because the lane that Pence leads is a dead end in this race in my opinion.
You can not possibly hope to take over the GOP party from Trump unless you are seen as his heir apparent or come after him as a usurper. Newsflash! The heirs can’t take over until the throne has been abdicated and Trump ain’t nowhere near relinquishing it.
Now Haley may not necessarily be in the Anti-Trump lane yet, but she’s definitely worked her way over there with her debate performance last month. She started out by calling out the inflation/ debt crisis by being not just a Biden problem, but a GOP inflicted problem also due to the tax cuts and bloated budgets passed under the Trump administration. Due to this step of humility she has made ground here to take over the Anti-Trump lane from Christie and I’m going to award it to her as I think she’ll get there in full. The first step off the Trump train is small, but she will need to continue on this path if she wants to have a real chance at winning the Primaries.
Let’s now look at how other candidates fared as we head into Debate #2.
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Staying in the Traditionalist/Anti-Trump lane, Chris Christie didn’t make as much noise as I thought he would make as the loudest anti-Trumper on the stage. To be honest I was shocked when he lazily raised or didn’t raise his hand when the candidates were asked if they would vote for Trump even if he gets convicted. Asa Hutchinson was the only one to clearly refuse and it shocked me to see Christie put his hand up, but he kind of denied it so who knows.
- Side note: That’s what makes the GOP so frustrating as a party for me to back, It is that when push comes to shove none of the party members really seem to be able to take a stand and call out a party member as doing wrong and that is why I think Trumps lock on this primary is inevitable at this point. To be fair there are a few such as Romney and Liz Cheney, but they then become ostracized by the party as a result. The party destroys itself by not tolerating critique. Not to say that Trump is guilty or not guilty, but if somebody’s been convicted of something there’s likely more of something there than nothing and the prosecution can prove it’s case. It’s absurd to me that the majority of the party is claiming the judicial branch is corrupt with no evidence besides their shock at seeing their King Trump stand accused. To say once the process of justice has been complete and the man is found guility in a court of law that you will still vote for him says more about your views on how you distrust the justice system as a whole and/or how you’ll pledge blind fealty to your king. Not that a conviction should forcibly change your mind if you believe someone still has leadership qualities you believe are needed. But as a presidential candidate yourself trying to carry the torch of moral right and justice to lead the country and the world it is just hypocritical to me that anyone of them would take that position of still supporting Trump as candidate if convicted.
Speaking of Asa, he’s the only one from the prior debate to not qualify…. hmm wonder why, likely that lack of hand raise lol. To be fair that guy had no energy or rizz as the kids say these days to really stand out in the crowd. Christie was more boisterous on being anti-trump and Asa was more like Robin to Christie’s Batman. But now I think Christie has to be more careful of Haley taking his mantle as there’s not much room on that perch for more than one candidate.
The Traditionalist/ We Like Trump Lane led by Pence and now left with just Tim Scott and Doug Burgum is a dead end lane. I don’t know where these guys think they are going, but that bus they are riding reminds of the infamous scene from Billy Madison….
These three will continue to claim how their vision of low taxes and family values and what not will lead this country forward. All while being completely oblivious to the end of the road ahead of them as Trump stands in their way and they did nothing to avoid him except sing his praises and say they approve of everything he’s done.
That leaves just DeSantis and Ramswamy left as the two I have not discussed. These are the two that are trying to take the throne from Trump by out-trumping Trump if that is possible. They sing his praises, but differ from the traditionalist group in that they aren’t afraid to lean heavily into culture war issues and be as boisteroius, if not more, than Trump.
I’ve given Vivek his own lane as the Outsider/Maverick as he’s the only candidate onstage to not have held political office previously. But he’s definitely in a side road of the Trump Lane and I may soon have to merge him fully onto it. Desantis and Vivek stand to gain the most if Trump somehow sees his grip on the GOP falter and his base needs somewhere similar to land.
Overall Vivek had a lot of introducing to do when he was on the debate stage last month and he was definitely #2 in his perception in that he got his first big chance to shine publicly. It felt like he came away a little bruised as he was the Trump effigy on the stage for everyone to bash on and maybe more of that is to come as Trump is nowhere to be found during the debates (Sure he’s on Tucker on X the site formerly known as Twitter, go check that out if you have nothing else to do I guess). DeSantis also looked a little bruised and I still have no idea how Doug Burgum managed to qualify for Debate #2.
It’s all about perception right now and who can shake the GOP grip from Trump. The candidates need to present the case as to why they will be better than Trump as the GOP Primary choice or Trump will retain his crown as the GOP’s king. No criminal conviction or antics from Trump will stop the candidates on stage tonight from voting for Trump in the 2024 general if he’s the nominee, so why would they expect the public to vote for someone else if they don’t provide a much better alternative.
In taking down the Goliath of Trump only a few here have a shot.
- Nikki has a shot in my opinion.
- Christie also has a shot if Nikki stays out of his lane and he can figure out how to make his argument more convincing for the GOP base.
- Meanwhile Vivek and DeSantis are there to pick up the King’s crown if it shall fall on their lap. This can only happen though if Trump starts facing immense pressure from his court cases or shots from Haley and Christie cause his mystique in the GOP to start crumbling.
- Pence, Scott, and Burgum are singing merrily about how awesome they are while being completely naive their path leads nowhere.
This concludes my review of the GOP field prior to Primary Debate #2 of the candidates and the lanes travelled. Let’s see how things shake out afterwards as I don’t expect too much to change from the debate tonight.
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