Tonight officially kicks off the 2024 presidential election season with the 1st Primary debate for the GOP.
Some quick background of my take on Politics here is warranted before things start heating up. I’m an analyst and I love Politics. Just the sheer strategy that is required to run a successful campaign along with the impact it has on all our lives.
If you aware of my recent work with Sports Betting, I view Politics in the same manner. It’s something I try to analyze to predict outcomes, but it is also one where you can be an active participant. Heck in some instance you can bet on politics, so there is definitely a lot of overlap. My goal with the Politics topics here is to highlight big political moments and provide my insights into what is occuring. Nothing too big here, but I feel like I have some perspective that I can add as an active follower of most things in the political realm.
Full disclosure in my Political background:
- It would be disingenious to discuss politics without talking about my political background. I get it people these days only want to have their opinions validated and often refuse to listen to the other side. But I think it’s more important to listen to the other side to truly understand their argument because if you are not informed about something from each side then how can you truly assert that your side is the correct one?
- I claim to be Independent when it comes to politics and really do try to keep an open perspective on things and issues, but my voting background will suggest otherwise.
- I have never voted for a Republican for President in any election since I started voting in 2004.
- Democrat each time, except Gary Johnson in 2016
- I do participate in Primary’s and being from Ohio you can only choose one party to vote. In 2012 and 2016 I participated in the GOP Primary (Romney and Trump voter here) and in 2020 I pulled a Dem one (To write in Andrew Yang as he messed up getting on the ballot in Ohio). This cycle looks to be shaping up to be a third GOP pull for me.
- Up until 2020 I would often split my ballot with GOP and Democrat picks down ballot for certain offices.
- I have never voted for a Republican for President in any election since I started voting in 2004.
- My current political philosphy is probably more Libertarian oriented to social issues, but with government needed as a regulator to help things work efficiently. I’ve found myself associating more with the political brand of NeoLiberalism these days which I found through the ne0liberal twitter account.
- So there you have my voting record and feel free to assess my takes on Politics knowing my background. But I do want to caution that I try to be Independent and view things from each side.
My Presidential Cycle background:
After seeing how crazy the 2016 cycle was I wanted to get more involved in the process. Being from Ohio we are usually last on the circuit to see any kind of Presidential attention unless it’s right before the General Election. I tried to go to a Trump rally in early 2016, but the doors were filled to capacity before entrance could be gained. I settled for watching his motorcade pull in and him waving to a crowd. I did finally get attendance to a Trump rally in late 2019 after he was already president.
But in 2020 I made it point to get out to Iowa as the Iowa State Fair is usually the inaugural kick off where candidates introduce themselves to Iowans, who have the first in the nation status (currently ) of being the first state to vote for primary candidates. I unfortunately missed out on the Iowa State Fair, but Andrew Yang mentioned his Yang-a-Palooza event in early November that I made sure to plan a trip to check it out. Turned out it was part of a bigger Democratic party gathering that day in Des Moines for the Liberty & Justice dinner where every Democrat candidate was there. Heck I even had to pretend to be a Beto fan and got up close and personal with him as he had to tell a mostly crying crowd that he was quitting. Lucky for me that was my ticket in as he now had a bunch of tickets for this event with little fans left from his corner that wanted to attend.
It was an awesome event to see every presidential candidate in person and before and after getting to meet with Yang for a brief moment. I ended up following Yang out to Vegas a couple of weeks later and then capped off the end of the year with a Canadian road trip to then see Yang countdown the New Year in New Hampshire. It was fun to tag along the presidential trail a bit, but I learned a few things from that cycle and the one in 2016 that I hope I can provide insights into. I have plenty of more stories to tell about these previous endeavors, but I’ll now turn the attention to the point of this inaugural Politics post by me.
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The GOP Primary 2024 – Debate #1:
Tonight the first debate kicks off with 8 Qualified candidates and Trump on the outside refusing to participate. If you check this wikipedia page for the GOP 2024 Primary Debates you’ll see who is all participating and how they qualified and others didn’t. I plan on doing a recap in the next day or two of tonight’s event, but I wanted to highlight some things to pay attention to heading into tonight’s debate.
There is a concept called Lanes and each candidate is grouped into them to some degree. Identifying these lanes is important as one person will dominate a lane and then the primary will divulge into a final battle between which lane will reign supreme.
- In 2020 Democratic Primary you had the Moderates, led by Biden but grouped with the likes of Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Harris. On the other side were the Liberals, led by Sanders and Warren. Then the outsiders who kind of crossed the two main lines of Yang and Williamson. There are plenty of others, but this is just an example of those lanes. In the end it became a race mainly against Biden of the Moderates against Bernie of the Liberals.
The 2024 GOP race will have a few different lanes with my own personal power ranking within each lane:
- Trump Lane – This is lane #1, Everybody trying to make a name for themselves out of nowhere typically wants to be in this lane. This is the lane for those that see themseves as a backer of all things MAGA and wants to be associated with Trump or seen as his heir apparent.
- #1 currently is the man himself, Donald J. Trump | Former President 2017-2021
- You can’t beat the original if the original ain’t ready to call it quits yet.
- #2 Ronald Dion DeSantis | Current governor of Florida since 2019.
- He’s trying to be more Trump than Trump and it appears to be backfiring. He’s also carving his own sub-lane into all things Culture Wars, but they may not be enough to escape Trump’s shadow in this lane.
- That’s it for this Lane these are the only two that are in the debate tonight or named Trump that will own this lane. With that said it’s impossible to see how DeSantis can move out of this lane before Trump takes all his support away and overshadows him.
- #1 currently is the man himself, Donald J. Trump | Former President 2017-2021
- The Moderate/Traditionalist/ We Like Trump Lane – This lane is for those in the GOP who are mostly part of the old brand of politics that we remember from the Bush era. These are your tradiitional bread and butter politicians with political backgrounds that were often seen as pathways to the presidency. Unfortunately for them in my opinion this lane is nothing but a dead end as they include their focus on backing all things Trump. If you like the guy enough then why not have the original. This lane exists solely because of it’s traditional pathway, but post 2016 I think this lane is no longer viable. They aren’t as focused on Culture War issues as DeSantis who is running in Trump’s shadow, but close enough that this could be seen as weaker version of the highway that is Trump Lane.
- #1 Michael Richard Pence | Former Vice President 2017-2021. fomer Governor of Indiana 2013-2017.
- This would be the lock of a lane in the politics leading up to the Bush era, a former VP looking to continue the work of his former running mate. Look at Biden now, Gore almost in 2020, and GHW Bush in ’88. Well Pence’s former running mate left a little baggage and isn’t done fighting, so unfortunately this lane will lead nowhere if Trump doesn’t get out of the way. He’s got a side lane on the pulse of the Evangelical but again Trump has taken that road also. There is nowhere to go behind Trump’s shadow.
- #2 Nimarata Nikki Haley | Former UN Ambassador 2017-2018, former Governor of South Carolina 2011-2017
- She’s got the strong resume, but so far I have yet to hear anything that makes her stand out in this lane. She backs Trump in most things and doesn’t sound much different than him. A strong resume blocked by Trump’s shadow again.
- #3 Timothy Eugene Scott | Current US Senator from South Carolina since 2013
- A strong resume of being an incumbent senator, but he just doesn’t have a thing to make him a thing in the poltical world brought on by Trump in 2016. He doesn’t condemn Trump in any noticeable form and just has nothing else to stand out.
- #4 Douglas James Burgum| Current Governor of North Dakota since 2016
- Ok, I never heard this guy’s name until this year. He’ll be one of those guys to likely make a small splash on the debate stage that we soon forget after he no longer qualifies in further ones. Props though to having an Achilles injury right before debate tonight, so maybe a quick political move to build up some notoriety. He’s too unknown with nothing going for him besides his traditionalist background of being a governor. That’s not going to pop in this era of politics.
- This lane is for those traditionalist GOP politicians who have stars in their eye with Trump, but don’t know how to read the political tea leaves and realize that they have no pathway in his shadow. Nor is their brand what GOP voters or voters in general are looking for anymore.
- #1 Michael Richard Pence | Former Vice President 2017-2021. fomer Governor of Indiana 2013-2017.
The Moderate/Traditionalist/ We DON’T Like Trump Lane – This lane is for those who would be in the previous Traditionalist lane, but have made a name for themselves recently by condemning Trump. To me these guys are in it to win it You can’t say you are Trump’s successor if he’s not ready to give it up, but you can be Trump’s successor if you can convince the electorate to give him up. They’ve identified a solid lane in my opinion as the other’s preceding this point have no pathway as long as Trump blocks them. The guys in this lane recognize some good from Trump’s time as President, but are making it a point to let the primary electorate they do not condone his behavior especially when it comes to things post the 2020 election.
- #1 Christopher James Christie | Former Governor of New Jersey 2010-2018
- He’s relatively known from his past run in 2016, but also his notorious scandal of Bridgegate as governor. However he’s leading the charge be the biggest critic of Trump and he want’s everyone to know. To me personally this is my favorite pick of the GOP primary just for the fact he has a spine to call out bad when he sees it, but also maintains the traditional GOP viewpoints that aren’t as extreme as those in the Trump lane.
- #2 William Asa Hutchinson II | Former Governor of Arkansas 2015-2023
- He’s got basically the same background as Christie, but it’s Christie’s shadow he’s dealing with here as Christie is being more vocal it seems in his condemnation of Trump.
- I feel bad for Asa, but Christie took over his one difference from being part of the has been camp of the other Traditionalist GOP candidates. I don’t see how Asa differentiates himself further unless he points out Christie’s corrupt past with Bridgegate, but perhaps that’s a bridge too far in the past for anyone to care about.
The Outsider/Maverick:
- This lane is for those in the party who are looking to invigorate some life into the conversation and be the guy with big ideas to possibly lead the conversation. I totally love policy wonk’s especially those with big ideas. It’s why I truly appreciated Yang’s campaign in 2020. If you’re going to emerge out of the 2024 GOP Primary victorious, you better have big ideas to lead the party forward and have a damn good chance at beating Biden and get others forget Trump’s baggage…. or the Party will be doomed to keep Trump and his baggage.
- #1 Vivek Ganapathy Ramaswamy | Business magnate
- He’s unknown, but he’s garnered a lot of press. It may be personal bias as he’s from Cincinnati as am I so that’s why I’m hearing so much about him. He’s got a variety of ideas, none convincing to me so far, but I know other’s have listened. He’s also been called the Andrew Yang of the GOP race this year. It’s true, but I really dislike this moniker as the idea’s I’ve heard so far sound the antithesis of Yang’s ideas such as expanding Democracy with Ranked Choice Voting and getting young people more involved. Vivek’s one idea I’ve heard is that he wants to raise the voting age up to 25. That’s not very democratic in my opinion if you have to wait 25 years until you get a say in the factors governing your life.
- Anyways, this lane is currently all his. He’s an outsider trying to breathe fresh life into the GOP. He’s slightly different from DeSantis is that he’s not all Culture War, but he’s also from an outside path like Trump. He has the qualities that people were attracted to Trump in the first place in that he was an outsider shaking up the system. If Trump falls out of favor in the GOP I could see Vivek rising to the top of this field very swiftly if that happens. The electorate yearns for big change, he would deliver it if it’s not Trump.
This concludes my review of the GOP Primary Debate #1 and the candidates that will be leading the discussions tonight, I plan to have a review of the debate up and how things shook out up later this week.
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