- Check out the full season 2023 MLB Betting Results
Update:
- October 1st, 2023
Well the final day is upon us.
Yesterday was a nice little victory capped off by the Athletics redeeming their season in a small form by taking one off the Angels.
I figured today would be a great day for the model here as it has leaned heavily into underdogs and with so many teams potentially packing it in early today we would definitely want to be on the long end of the odds.
Today’s betting landscape for MLB games is quite telling and confirms the model’s assumptions on MLB parity:
- There are only three games available to bet today with odds +155 or greater and 1, the Nats, at +180.
- This hints towards the model assumption that the MLB is a league of parity and that often the results will end in a coinflip.
- Sure the coin is weighted, but things are far from a lock. No team has a less than a 35% implied odd to win today. Also only 6 of the games have teams less than 45% implied.
Other insights. Two games don’t have lines at all because there has been no declared starter. This points to how important a starter is to a team’s odds of winning. The books should already know how fresh a team’s batting roster is and fresh a bullpen is, but deferring until a start is declared they tip their hand it’s importance. My model doesn’t necessarily take into account Starting rosters, but that’s because I defer to Fangraph’s projections which I’m sure they incorporate but I don’t fully understand it’s impact. I’d definitely want to include more personalized stats in my model next year, but this has been a successful test run with logic in place this season.
And lastly that leaves us with a sad report here that only 1 game qualified for action today. The Philladelphia Phillies at +106. Nowhere near a big underdog that the model is used to, but a nice small pick on a day of chaos with a bonanza of games kicking off shortly after 3 PM.
Playoffs:
I’ll finalize this on Monday as I’ve stated previously I want to have 4 teams or so going into the playoffs and just bet the futures for them to win the World Series.
My current porftolio is 10 units and I said I’d want to get it to 12, might be a bit more now as I’ll likely be adding the Dodgers to replace the Cubs.
I’d like to have two teams in each League that aren’t facing each other prior to the Championship Series. So far I placed these bets last week as I saw good value before the playoffs began on them.
NL
- MIL +2100 3u
- CHC +5750 2u (eliminated before it began, damn you Suzuki and that missed catch Tuesday)
AL
- MIN +1800 3u
- TBR +1200 2u
Unit Size:
- The current bet size is currently at 4 units
Today’s card:
October 1st – DAILY CARD:
Round Robin:
- None today
September 30th Total Results: X Units
*See Glossary for details to help explain terms and other recent model changes.
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Past Results:
September 30th – DAILY CARD:
Round Robin:
- Parlay Size: Pairs of 2
- 2.81 units bet | 21 combinations
- Profit : +0.90 Units
September 30th Total Results: +7.58 Units
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September 29th – DAILY CARD:
Round Robin:
- Parlay Size: Pairs of 2
- 1.6 units bet | 6 combinations
- Profit : -1.60 Units
September 29th Total Results: -4.00 Units
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September 28th – DAILY CARD:
Round Robin:
- Parlay Size: Pairs of 2
- 1.2 units bet | 3 combinations
- Profit : +2.56 Units
September 28th Total Results: +14.76 Units
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September 27th – DAILY CARD:
Round Robin:
- Parlay Size: Pairs of 2
- 0.8 units bet | 2 combinations
- Profit : -0.8 Units
September 27th Total Results: -8.80 Units
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September 26th – DAILY CARD:
Round Robin:
- Parlay Size: Pairs of 2
- 1.2 units bet | 3 combinations
- Profit : -1.20 Units
September 26th Total Results: -13.20 Units
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September 24th – DAILY CARD:
Round Robin:
- Parlay Size: Pairs of 2
- 2.0 units bet | 10 combinations
- Profit : -0.14 Units
September 24th Total Results: +4.26 Units
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September 23rd – DAILY CARD:
Round Robin:
- Parlay Size: Pairs of 2
- 0.9 units bet | 3 combinations
- Profit : +4.60 Units
September 23rd Total Results: +18.10 Units
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Today’s slate has 4 games on the card, let’s see if the recent model changes have any impact. As today it’s saying I should exclude the White Sox despite them being a qualified bet.
The recent model changes were tweaks to the background algorithm to remove any teams that have been long-term losers in profitability the last 90 days. It’s essentially a no bet list for teams that my model didn’t necessarily bet, but under the assumption the results if i were to take the ML side of every team. These are the 5 worst teams saying that I should avoid them based on their betting performance.
- Remember we are betting against the books and the lines they offer, not whether we have winners.
- For example the Nats have been the best bet the last 90 days because if you were to bet $1 on them every game during that time you would’ve netted a profit of $19.19 during that span.
- That’s the best profit record of all 30 MLB teams you could’ve backed every game during that time. And they did it with a 40-40 record for an even split of 50% but on mostly heavy underdog odds each of those games.
- To show long term success we need winners at the right price.
- Back to today’s exclusion of the White Sox they’ve resulted in a net loss of $18.27 on on a 26-51 record the last 90 days.
September 22nd – DAILY CARD:
Round Robin:
- Parlay Size: Pairs of 2
- +1.2 units bet | 6 combinations
- Profit : +0.22 Units
September 22nd Total Results: +4.27 Units
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I’m testing out some correlated parlay theories which one can use in Single Game Parlay picks where a heavy hitter team with a great bullpen either goes Over when they win or goes Under when they lose. All things equal one would expect Over/Unders be roughly split down the middle, but my current theory is that these heavy hitter with great bullpens teams are correlated to the Over/Unders based on their performance.
I’m currently eyeballing two teams right now with this theory. Milwaukee and the Dodgers. Earlier today I put a unit down on the Brewers/over parlay and an opposing unit down on the Cardinals/Under. This didn’t work out, but a sample size of 1 should not deter us here.
Going back to August 1st for a nice recent performance review:
- Milwaukee has played in 45 games and have had an average Implied ML win% of 56% during that span.
- Based on that breakdown and assuming O/U hit at 50/50 rates the following baseline would be expected:
- MIL Wins 56% of time and split those games Over/Under evenly
- MIL Loses 44% of time and splits those games Over/Under evenly
- Giving a chart like this:
Now based on my theory I believe the likelihood of the MIL/Over and the Mil-Opp/Under hits more the implied probability as my belief is that they are correlated events.
Looking back at the 45 games since August 1st:
As one can see the correlation is there as the MIL/Over has been hitting way more than it’s Implied probability along with. I haven’t fully fleshed out the setup here, but so far I like what I see.
For the 2nd test team which I’m betting tonight here are the Dodgers since August 1st:
The correlation theory to a loss and the under isn’t there, but the results have skewed heavily Over with 64% of the games heres. It makes sense looking back as the Dodgers have had a full run higher in ERA than MIL and 20 more runs scored during the Last 30 days. Again this theory is still in its early developments, but I’m testing it out today. We’re getting some recent reversion for them as the last 4 of 5 games have been under so they only are recently cooling off.
Tonight I’m doing a similar 1 unit on LAD/O and 1 unit on SFG/U as that’s the theory. I’ll backtest more, but due to time constraints today I wanted to get this action out there.
Unit Size:
- The current bet size is currently at 3 units with a churn level at 40 games today.
Today’s card:
September 21st – DAILY CARD:
Round Robin:
- Parlay Size: Pairs of 2
- 0.9 units bet | 3 combinations
- Profit : -0.9 Units
September 21st Total Results: -2.1 Units
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September 20th – DAILY CARD:
Round Robin:
- Parlay Size: Pairs of 2
- 1.5 units bet | 10 combinations
- Profit : -0.34 Units
September 20th Total Results: +1.46 Units
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September 19th – DAILY CARD:
Round Robin:
- Parlay Size: Pairs of 2
- 3.6 units bet | 36 combinations
- Profit : -3.05 Units
September 19th Total Results: -20.25 Units
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September 18th – DAILY CARD:
Round Robin:
- Parlay Size: Pairs of 2
- 2.0 units bet | 10 combinations
- Profit : -0.68 Units
September 18th Total Results: -0.08 Units
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September 17th – DAILY CARD:
Round Robin:
- Parlay Size: Pairs of 2
- 2.4 units bet | 15 combinations
- Profit : -0.09 Units
September 17th Total Results: +2.32 Units
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September 16th – DAILY CARD:
*Pending
Round Robin:
- Parlay Size: Pairs of 2
- 2.0 units bet | 10 combinations
- Profit : -0.80 Units
September 16th Total Results: -1.20 Units
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September 15th – DAILY CARD:
Yesterday was just a solitary blowout of the White Sox as the Rockies got rained out. Today we put the 4 unit bet size to the test with 5 games.
I’m introducing Model 11.1, but I wouldn’t get too excited here. It’s probably not +EV, but I just want a bit more action these days as the Qualified bet totals are lacking as we head to the end of the season. I ended STRETCH bets, but they need to make a return in a way to get the volume up and ensure 1000 bets are hit by the end of the season (a small personal goal I’m striving for here lol). With that said I’m introducing Q9 bets.
Q9 bets are QUALIFIED bets in Model 11.1 that are above 9% eROI, but under 10%. All QUALIFED bets are 10%+. I’m naming them Q9s so they can be tracked on the Season Tracker page for performance.
There is some expected loss in backtesting to this number with the season difference being 6 units less at 1 unit bet per game in backtesting. But in the last 3 months it’s only 1 unit less and in the last 2 months it’s a gain of 3. So to me it’s a small way to add action for a small cost. If the model holds +EV, which it should as backtesting is marginally impacted here, then it’s just a way to smooth the daily variance out ideally with more volume and possibly make the RRs less likely to zero out days with low hits.
*Pending
Round Robin:
- Parlay Size: Pairs of 2
- 2.0 units bet | 10 combinations
- Profit : -0.49 Units
September 15th Total Results: +1.51 Units
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September 14th – DAILY CARD:
*Rockies game Rained Out
Round Robin:
- Parlay Size: Pairs of 2
- 0.8 units bet | 1 combinations
- Profit : -0.8 Units
September 14th Total Results: -4.80 Units
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September 13th – DAILY CARD:
Round Robin:
- Parlay Size: Pairs of 2
- 1.2 units bet | 6 combinations
- Profit : -0.05 Units
September 13th Total Results: +2.35 Units
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September 12th – DAILY CARD:
Round Robin:
- Parlay Size: Pairs of 2
- 0.6 units bet | 1 combinations
- Profit : -0.6 Units
September 12th Total Results: +3.75 Units
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September 11th – DAILY CARD:
Round Robin:
- Parlay Size: Pairs of 2
- 0.6 units bet | 1 combinations
- Profit : +5.42 Units
September 11th Total Results: +18.47 Units
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September 10th – DAILY CARD:
Round Robin:
- Parlay Size: Pairs of 2
- 2.41 units bet | 28 combinations
- Profit : -1.91 Units
September 10th Total Results: -10.91 Units
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September 9th – DAILY CARD:
Round Robin:
- Parlay Size: Pairs of 2
- 2.1 units bet | 21 combinations
- Profit : +1.74 Units
September 9th Total Results: +11.34 Units
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September 8th – DAILY CARD:
Round Robin:
- Parlay Size: Pairs of 2
- 1.2 units bet | 6 combinations
- Profit : -1.2 Units
September 8th Total Results: -4.05 Units
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September 7th – DAILY CARD:
Round Robin:
- Parlay Size: Pairs of 2
- 0.6 units bet | 1 combinations
- Profit : -0.60 Units
September 7th Total Results: +0.75 Units
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September 6th – DAILY CARD:
Round Robin:
- Parlay Size: Pairs of 2
- 1.5 units bet | 10 combinations
- Profit : +5.00 Units
September 6th Total Results: +22.10 Units
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