September 1, 2023 NCAAF College Football Betting Cards deta
- Yesterday was bad. Nebraska looked like a lock late then epically collapsed in the last 4 minutes.
- Also that NC AT game was lucky to be where it was and I happend to catch the last few minutes on ESPN+ and I do have to say the timing rules are hard to adjust to while watching college over NFL. UAB kept throwing up 22 and the clock stopped on every 1st down completion giving them plenty of time to get set and throw a spread beating TD in the end.
- Today’s the rebound! The model needs to start showing consistency before the big day tomorrow.
Season Tracking:
I’m using a starting bankroll of $1,000 to start the season here. I don’t plan on replacing this with extra funds during the season, so this is all we will be playing with.
1 unit bets equal to $10 as my baseline bet for each game This money equivalent will not change throughout the season on what my units are worth. But the Unit sizes will be adjusted accordingly based on bankroll performance and model confidence.
Current Record: 2-6 | -$43.10 / -4.31 units
Today I’m continuing to bet 1 unit only on games.
Today’s card:
- The card today features 4 spread bets and 2 ML.
- Based on season results so far I’m valuing each WP% point as one point on the spread. So I would expect a 25% WP% team to be fairly valued at +25 pts and on the flip side a 75% WP% team fairly valued at -25 pts.
- Also in regards to ML I only feel confident on taking those if the WP% > 35%, otherwise I’m looking at the Spread for value.
- I’m also going with the first heavy favorites on the bets today with spreads on MIami, Michigan State, and the Away small fave Stanford.
Lastly I’m doing a Round Robin on all 5 bets here using picks of 2 for a total of 0.5 units or $5.00 to be exact.
DAILY CARD:
*See Glossary for details to help explain terms and other recent model changes.
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