- Sunday May 7th’s MLB Daily Betting Card features a complete slate of 15 MLB games!
- Yesterday’s 05/06/23 Card resulted in a loss of -0.84 Unit Value on a 5-7 record
- The full season 2023 MLB Betting Results is now at a Net Profit of +87.76 Unit Value with a 8.9% ROI.
*Final Results:
*See Glossary below for details to help explain terms and recent model changes.
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May 7th, 2023 MLB Baseball Betting Cards details:
No changes to model today or any significant notes.
** I created a PGA betting card for the Well’s Fargo Championship this weekend. I provide a detailed step by step process on how I created the card and it also includes a list of my top ranked players that I used to make the selections. Something worth checking out If you’re interested in Golf betting at all.
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Glossary of terms:
- Card: Denotes the reason for team selection
- Main: The main choice for a bet, criteria is any team favored to win a game with a >50% WP% and eROI >0.
- Runts: Underdogs in terms of WP% that were selected as bets after the Favorite couldn’t be bet due to unfavorable odds (negative eROI after line shopping). Must be > 3% in terms of eROI for Runts card qualification, otherwise entire game is scratched from card.
- All Runts bets are 2 units; or 1 if the team is in bottom 5 of season profitability as seen on my Season Results page.
- WP% = Win Probability %
- This is the key to my model, I source these typically from Fangraphs as they do a pretty accurate job based on backtesting of past data. I also add my own adjustments to make them more accurate. The data as a whole is accurate, but at a team level it has some variation. My adjustment adds or subtracts to the WP based on winning records of teams playing.
- ML Odds = The Moneyline odds that the sportsbook is offering for the bet
- BE ML = Breakeven Moneyline
- This is a calculation to convert the Moneyline into a percentage format to highlight how often the bet would have to win to show a breakeven in money won/loss on a bet with the given odds.
- eROI = expected Return on Investment
- This is the expected Return on Investment a bet would return overtime if we were able to consistently place a similar bet. The formula is WP/BE ML.
- For example a bet with an eROI of 10% would be expected to show a net profit of 10% over the true odds. If a bet had a WP = 50%, meaning it would win half the time, we would expect to show a profit of 10% on our bets if we won 5 and lost 5.
- Unit size terms = These are factors I’m using to determine the appropriate unit size to bet
- Base = (WP%-45%)/5%. It is rounded down to each whole interval so that only bets with WP 50% or greater will be eligible for a bet. Maximum of 3 units.
- Edge= awards a bonus unit for each eROI / 5% > 1. Maximum of 2 units.
- Team = 1 unit penalty due to team being in bottom 5 of season profitability
- Bonus= awards a single bonus unit when Base and Edge units are equal to 2+ each in size.
May Adjustment
- I’ve alluded to the idea of adjusting unit values and the beginning of a given month seems an appropriate time for a 6 month season of baseball
- Entering May the bankroll for the season is up over 60 units.
- Assuming the initial bankroll to start the season was 100 Units that means so far the bankroll has increased over 60% and in order to see relative gains throughout the season we need to increase unit sizes.
- A safe measure of increase is 30%, about half of the gains so far this season.
- Going forward the Unit Values will be adjusted from $1 to $1.30
- The plan is to report all unit gains in terms of the orginal season starting value of $1, but know that the daily value of those units wagered going forward are now higher.
Model 5.12:
The Team Penalty unit which currently deducts one unit off all eligible bets for a team if that team is currently in the bottom 5 of profitability on the season (See 2023 MLB Betting Results teams data). This list is dynamic as it changes each day, but going forward to prevent Oakland or any other future team from being a drain of underpeformance I’ve upped the penalty to 2 units for the last place team. Note that these penalties will never reduce bet size to less than 1 unit if the team is eligible for a bet.
The overall goal here is increase the volume of plays while reducing risk. As a result the finances of your bankroll should improve as the strategy should capitalize on postive ROI plays resulting in more overall units won/ profits in a faster timeframe.
Model 5.11 Update:
RUNTS card added. These are opposite picks of bets that failed to materialize for a certain team due to negative eROI. They are added if a targeted MAIN card favorite team doesn’t have a positve eROI after line shopping. The opposing team is then reviewed for a positive eROI of 3%+. If that is the case then the RUNT team is added as a bet and at a fixed unit size of 2.
A second minor change with Model 5.11 is that I added a Unit Reduction factor called Team. This is a flag of the bottom 5 teams in profitability that you can review each day in my 2023 MLB Seasons Results page. The idea is that these teams have already burned me quite a bit this year, so they will be penalized 1 unit so that I’m not stretching a bigger bet on teams that just have trouble winning when needed. This list is dynamic each day so the bottom 5 teams could be different if somehow these reduced bets or RUNT cards get these teams back in my good graces.
Model 5.0 Update:
Base Units needed to be recalibrated to allow 1 unit bets to return. Previous Model had 1 base unit for every 5% of Win Probability % (WP%) above 45%. Due to recent adjustments in the Model no bets under 50% were no longer being placed, so no bet of 1 unit was possible.
New Model scales up Base Unit floor to 50% on the WP% and allows up to 3 units for every level of 5% above it.
In addition a Bonus unit was added if both the Base Unit and Edge Units were each providing at least 2 Units apiece on a given bet. Meaning now up to 6 units is the new Max Unit size that is feasible.
For example, any bet where WP% >60% will provide 3 Base Units and containing an eROI > 10% will provide an additional 2 Edge Units and since both Unit sources are 2+ in size a bonus unit is added to give us a 6 unit bet .
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I just created a PGA betting card for the Well’s Fargo Championship this weekend. I provide a detailed step by step process on how I created the card and also includes a list of my top ranked players that I used to make the selections.
The Mexico Open PGA Tournament just wrapped up this past weekend. If you are into golf betting, considering it, or just curious about how I apply my betting strategies to a different sport I highly suggest you check it out.
