May 4th, 2023 – MLB Daily Baseball Sports Betting Card

• Thursday May 4th’s MLB Daily Betting Card features 7 games with a few RUNTS (Underdog teams with favorable lines where matchup Favorites didn’t have one)
• Yesterday’s 05/03/23 Card resulted in a loss, -2.24 Unit Value on a 6-7 record
• The full season 2023 MLB Betting Results is now at a Net Profit of +50.61 Unit Value with a 5.7% ROI.

**Also I just created a PGA betting card for the Well’s Fargo Championship this weekend. I provide a detailed step by step process on how I created the card and it also includes a list of my top ranked players that I used to make the selections. Something worth checking out If you’re interested in Golf betting at all.

___________________________________

___________________________________

*Final Results:

A MASSIVE DAY! +27.37 Units Won | 100.2% ROI

• I condensed down the card by removing the display of the Unit Value size as it is currently set to $1.30 this month. This will not change without notice here. Also I removed the bet type line as I bet exclusively Monylines, so no real need to display that data here.

May 4th, 2023 MLB Baseball Betting Cards details:

Apologies for the confusion on the RUNTS card implementation yesterday. Some double checking of details and I realized I had miscalulated their profitability.

After further review the data showed that there is some small level of profitability if I keep the eROI above 3% on the plays. This checks out as these plays are going to be sub 50% WP plays and review of Fangraphs accuracy in the WP predicitions of such probability plays is that they underperform by a few percentage points.

Also they may show to be more profitable after implementation as my back data only uses the first line i recorded that day for each game. After a game is selected I will shop for the best line before placing a bet, meaning that the projected results are definitely underinflating the profitability.

Yesterday’s initial test run proved succesful in that it went 3-3 for profit. Although there were 3 games that wouldn’t have qualified under the 3% minimum: The Giants (Won), The Pirates (Loss), and Oakland (they always lose).

Today’s card incorporates RUNTS and again I will keep the unit sizing fixed at 2 units for the time being on these plays. The reason being is that these are low probability plays and less likely to hit compared to MAIN card bets, but overtime the value should pay off to prove profitable. By keep the unit sizing roughly lower than most MAIN card bets it will be more a complement to the MAIN card bets each day as opposed to a bigger component which could easily sink it on a day of bad results.

Model 5.11 Update:

RUNTS card added. These are opposite picks of bets that failed to materialize for a certain team due to negative eROI. They are added if a targeted MAIN card favorite team doesn’t have a positve eROI after line shopping. The opposing team is then reviewed for a positive eROI of 3%+. If that is the case then the RUNT team is added as a bet and at a fixed unit size of 2.

A second minor change with Model 5.11 is that I added a Unit Reduction factor called Team. This is a flag of the bottom 5 teams in profitability that you can review each day in my 2023 MLB Seasons Results page. The idea is that these teams have already burned me quite a bit this year, so they will be penalized 1 unit so that I’m not stretching a bigger bet on teams that just have trouble winning when needed. This list is dynamic each day so the bottom 5 teams could be different if somehow these reduced bets or RUNT cards get these teams back in my good graces.

Glossary of terms:

• WP% = Win Probability %
  • This is the key to my model, I source these typically from Fangraphs as they do a pretty accurate job based on backtesting of past data. I also add my own adjustments to make them more accurate. The data as a whole is accurate, but at a team level it has some variation. My adjustment adds or subtracts to the WP based on winning records of teams playing.
• ML Odds = The Moneyline odds that the sportsbook is offering for the bet
• BE ML = Breakeven Moneyline
  • This is a calculation to convert the Moneyline into a percentage format to highlight how often the bet would have to win to show a breakeven in money won/loss on a bet with the given odds.
• eROI = expected Return on Investment
  • This is the expected Return on Investment a bet would return overtime if we were able to consistently place a similar bet. The formula is WP/BE ML.
  • For example a bet with an eROI of 10% would be expected to show a net profit of 10% over the true odds. If a bet had a WP = 50%, meaning it would win half the time, we would expect to show a profit of 10% on our bets if we won 5 and lost 5.
• Base and Edge = are terms I’m using to determine the appropriate unit amount to bet
  • Base = (WP%-45%)/5%. It is rounded down to each whole interval so that only bets with WP 50% or greater will be eligible for a bet. Maximum of 3 units.
  • Edge= awards a bonus unit for each eROI / 5% > 1. Maximum of 2 units.
  • Bonus= awards a single bonus unit when Base and Edge units are equal to 2+ each in size.

May Adjustment

• I’ve alluded to the idea of adjusting unit values and the beginning of a given month seems an appropriate time for a 6 month season of baseball
• Entering May the bankroll for the season is up over 60 units.
  • Assuming the initial bankroll to start the season was 100 Units that means so far the bankroll has increased over 60% and in order to see relative gains throughout the season we need to increase unit sizes.
  • A safe measure of increase is 30%, about half of the gains so far this season.
• Going forward the Unit Values will be adjusted from $1 to $1.30
  • The plan is to report all unit gains in terms of the orginal season starting value of $1, but know that the daily value of those units wagered going forward are now higher.

Model 5.0 Update:

Base Units needed to be recalibrated to allow 1 unit bets to return. Previous Model had 1 base unit for every 5% of Win Probability % (WP%) above 45%. Due to recent adjustments in the Model no bets under 50% were no longer being placed, so no bet of 1 unit was possible.

New Model scales up Base Unit floor to 50% on the WP% and allows up to 3 units for every level of 5% above it.

In addition a Bonus unit was added if both the Base Unit and Edge Units were each providing at least 2 Units apiece on a given bet. Meaning now up to 6 units is the new Max Unit size that is feasible.

For example, any bet where WP% >60% will provide 3 Base Units and containing an eROI > 10% will provide an additional 2 Edge Units and since both Unit sources are 2+ in size a bonus unit is added to give us a 6 unit bet .

______________________________

I just created a PGA betting card for the Well’s Fargo Championship this weekend. I provide a detailed step by step process on how I created the card and also includes a list of my top ranked players that I used to make the selections.

The Mexico Open PGA Tournament just wrapped up this past weekend. If you are into golf betting, considering it, or just curious about how I apply my betting strategies to a different sport I highly suggest you check it out.