May 3rd, 2023 – MLB Daily Sports Betting Card

*Final Results: Merged Main and Runts cards together

-2.24 Units Loss | -5.7% ROI

Damn you Oakland blowing another game late, worst team ever!

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May 3rd, 2023 MLB Baseball Betting Cards details:

• The “MAIN” card features 7 bets for a total of 19 Units wagered
  • Equal to $24.70 in Unit Value Wagered and with a Max Payout potential of $48.10

• The “RUNT” card features 6 bets for a total of 12 Units wagered
  • Equal to $15.60 in Unit Value Wagered and with a Max Payout potential of $38.30

• New York Mets/ Detroit Tigers Doubleheaders games excluded today as Doubleheaders are hard to track and get the proper WP% projections in time.
• Los Angeles Dodgers/ Philadelphia Phillies game is excluded today due to pitching change for tomorrow and no lines available by time I reviewed games.

Shocking developments eh? You are probably asking what is a ‘RUNT’ card?

Well on days like yesterday where the losses start to pile up and on multiple days in a row to boot, it provides time for me to get introspective and examine the model further to identify leaks….. or potential strengths that have yet to be exploited.

I have tracked over 400 games so far this season and that gives me insights into adjusments I could’ve made betting wise to properly capture the wins. The thought came to me to review the games I didn’t bet so far this season, technically the ones I shouldn’t have bet so far this season based on Model 5.0. There were just shy of 250 games I shouldn’t have bet according to Model 5.0.

• The idea I had was to review “what my performance would’ve been if I had bet 1 unit on each of those non-bet games?”
  • The results showed that I would’ve netted -12 units.
• Then the next idea was “what if I bet the opposite of those games?”
  • The results showed 92 units gained! (EDITED: It was all too good to be true. RUNTS are no good, disregard. I forgot to properly subtract the unit wager out of winnings to show overall profit on these bets. This wildly inflated returns. It is actually showing -10 units).
  • When checked for 2 units bet instead of 1 the number rose to an astronomical gain of 191 Units! (EDITED, See notes above)

These leftover bets on the opposing side of what I wanted to pick are what I am deeming the RUNTS!

Now I don’t want to get too excited here as this is theoretical according to the back data I have and there are some flaws to it that I need to be concerned about.

Cons to betting RUNTS:

• These are picks that failed to be chosen first of all because they had a Win Probability % (WP) below 50%. Meaning they were likely to lose.
• 2nd the higher probability team according to WP failed to have a bet made because the odds were too high meaning that the expected Return on Investment (eROI) was negative.
• These 2 things should have no bearing on the likelihood of a successful opposing bet as over the long run the WP should even out and the eROI isn’t guaranteed to be postive either on this opposing side.
• There are likely to be more losers in these bets over time as they have sub 50% WP. Meaning we need a large sample size of bets to overcome the variance

Pros to betting RUNTS:

• These are the underdog teams in each game, meaing the vast majority should be providing plus odds on a given Moneyline bet.
• 2nd they aren’t doomed to constant failure, as proven out by this back data test, but also the losses we occur each day in the model of bets we think should win prove that these bets do win quite often.
• To counter the last bullet of the cons, there is often a large enough sample size of bets to take each day as I’m typically only betting about half the slate of games each day. If i keep my unit size smaller than my typical MAIN card bets and relatively constant, it should provide enough runway to overcome any variance and allow wins to stack up and prove profitable as the underdog value pays off at a healthy rate.
  • To start off Day 1 of RUNTS betting I’m going to set the unit sizes at 2 and if proven correct I will scale up the unit sizes if the model adjustment proves profitable over time.

Model 5.1 Update:

RUNTS card added. These are opposite picks of bets that failed to materialize for a certain team due to negative eROI. See explanation above for more details on RUNTS. This means almost every game each day will now have a bet. Helping lower variance if our model is accurate in projecting profitable plays.

A second minor change with Model 5.1 is that I added a Unit Reduction factor called Team. This is a flag of the bottom 5 teams in profitability that you can review each day in my 2023 MLB Seasons Results page. The idea is that these teams have already burned me quite a bit this year, so they will be penalized 1 unit so that I’m not stretching a bigger bet on teams that just have trouble winning when needed. This list is dynamic each day so the bottom 5 teams could be different if somehow these reduced bets or RUNT cards get these teams back in my good graces.

Now onto what you all came here for, The Betting Cards!

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*Results Pending:

MAIN CARD

RUNT CARD DISREGARD THIS CARD. THIS CARD IS NO GOOD. THIS SYSTEM IS UNPROFITABLE. I’m counting these bets to my daily card, as I’ve already placed them and I’m not pulling them back for an automatic loss.

Glossary of terms:

• WP% = Win Probability %
  • This is the key to my model, I source these typically from Fangraphs as they do a pretty accurate job based on backtesting of past data. I also add my own adjustments to make them more accurate. The data as a whole is accurate, but at a team level it has some variation. My adjustment adds or subtracts to the WP based on winning records of teams playing.
• ML Odds = The Moneyline odds that the sportsbook is offering for the bet
• BE ML = Breakeven Moneyline
  • This is a calculation to convert the Moneyline into a percentage format to highlight how often the bet would have to win to show a breakeven in money won/loss on a bet with the given odds.
• eROI = expected Return on Investment
  • This is the expected Return on Investment a bet would return overtime if we were able to consistently place a similar bet. The formula is WP/BE ML.
  • For example a bet with an eROI of 10% would be expected to show a net profit of 10% over the true odds. If a bet had a WP = 50%, meaning it would win half the time, we would expect to show a profit of 10% on our bets if we won 5 and lost 5.
• Base and Edge = are terms I’m using to determine the appropriate unit amount to bet
  • Base = (WP%-45%)/5%. It is rounded down to each whole interval so that only bets with WP 50% or greater will be eligible for a bet. Maximum of 3 units.
  • Edge= awards a bonus unit for each eROI / 5% > 1. Maximum of 2 units.
  • Bonus= awards a single bonus unit when Base and Edge units are equal to 2+ each in size.

May Adjustment

• I’ve alluded to the idea of adjusting unit values and the beginning of a given month seems an appropriate time for a 6 month season of baseball
• Entering May the bankroll for the season is up over 60 units.
  • Assuming the initial bankroll to start the season was 100 Units that means so far the bankroll has increased over 60% and in order to see relative gains throughout the season we need to increase unit sizes.
  • A safe measure of increase is 30%, about half of the gains so far this season.
• Going forward the Unit Values will be adjusted from $1 to $1.30
  • The plan is to report all unit gains in terms of the orginal season starting value of $1, but know that the daily value of those units wagered going forward are now higher.

Model 5.0 Update:

Base Units needed to be recalibrated to allow 1 unit bets to return. Previous Model had 1 base unit for every 5% of Win Probability % (WP%) above 45%. Due to recent adjustments in the Model no bets under 50% were no longer being placed, so no bet of 1 unit was possible.

New Model scales up Base Unit floor to 50% on the WP% and allows up to 3 units for every level of 5% above it.

In addition a Bonus unit was added if both the Base Unit and Edge Units were each providing at least 2 Units apiece on a given bet. Meaning now up to 6 units is the new Max Unit size that is feasible.

For example, any bet where WP% >60% will provide 3 Base Units and containing an eROI > 10% will provide an additional 2 Edge Units and since both Unit sources are 2+ in size a bonus unit is added to give us a 6 unit bet .

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The Mexico Open PGA Tournament just wrapped up this past weekend. If you are into golf betting, considering it, or just curious about how I apply my betting strategies to a different sport I highly suggest you check the post out.