May 1st, 2023 – MLB Daily Sports Betting Card

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May Adjustment

• I’ve alluded to the idea of adjusting unit values and the beginning of a given month seems an appropriate time for a 6 month season of baseball
• Entering May the bankroll for the season is up over 60 units.
  • Assuming the initial bankroll to start the season was 100 Units that means so far the bankroll has increased over 60% and in order to see relative gains throughout the season we need to increase unit sizes.
  • A safe measure of increase is 30%, about half of the gains so far this season.
• Going forward the Unit Values will be adjusted from $1 to $1.30
  • The plan is to report all unit gains in terms of the orginal season starting value of $1, but know that the daily value of those units wagered going forward are now higher.

• Today’s card features 4 bets for a total of 12 Units wagered
  • Equal to $15.60 in Unit Value Wagered and with a Max Payout potential of $27.05.

Model 5.0 Update:

Model updated to version 5.0.

Base Units needed to be recalibrated to allow 1 unit bets to return. Previous Model had 1 base unit for every 5% of Win Probability % (WP%) above 45%. Due to recent adjustments in the Model no bets under 50% were no longer being placed, so no bet of 1 unit was possible.

New Model scales up Base Unit floor to 50% on the WP% and allows up to 3 units for every level of 5% above it.

In addition a Bonus unit was added if both the Base Unit and Edge Units were each providing at least 2 Units apiece on a given bet. Meaning now up to 6 units is the new Max Unit size that is feasible.

For example, any bet where WP% >60% will provide 3 Base Units and containing an eROI > 10% will provide an additional 2 Edge Units and since both Unit sources are 2+ in size a bonus unit is added to give us a 6 unit bet .

Glossary of terms:

• WP% = Win Probability %
  • This is the key to my model, I source these typically from Fangraphs as they do a pretty accurate job based on backtesting of past data. I also add my own adjustments to make them more accurate. The data as a whole is accurate, but at a team level it has some variation. My adjustment adds or subtracts to the WP based on winning records of teams playing.
• ML Odds = The Moneyline odds that the sportsbook is offering for the bet
• BE ML = Breakeven Moneyline
  • This is a calculation to convert the Moneyline into a percentage format to highlight how often the bet would have to win to show a breakeven in money won/loss on a bet with the given odds.
• eROI = expected Return on Investment
  • This is the expected Return on Investment a bet would return overtime if we were able to consistently place a similar bet. The formula is WP/BE ML.
  • For example a bet with an eROI of 10% would be expected to show a net profit of 10% over the true odds. If a bet had a WP = 50%, meaning it would win half the time, we would expect to show a profit of 10% on our bets if we won 5 and lost 5.
• Base and Edge = are terms I’m using to determine the appropriate unit amount to bet
  • Base = (WP%-45%)/5%. It is rounded down to each whole interval so that only bets with WP 50% or greater will be eligible for a bet. Maximum of 3 units.
  • Edge= awards a bonus unit for each eROI / 5% > 1. Maximum of 2 units.
  • Bonus= awards a single bonus unit when Base and Edge units are equal to 2+ each in size..

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Also I posted a betting card for The Mexico Open PGA Tournament this weekend. 10/11 picks made the Cut into the back half of the weekend for Top 5 placement bets. If you are into golf betting, considering it, or just curious about how I apply my betting strategies to a different sport I highly suggest you check it out.