May 10th, 2023 – MLB Daily Sports Betting Card and Odds

• Wednesday May 10th’s MLB Daily Betting Card features 7 MLB games
  • 5 Main / 2 Runts

• Yesterday’s 05/09/23 Card resulted in a loss of -3.34 Unit Value on a 4-5 record

• The full season 2023 MLB Betting Results is now at a Net Profit of +62.98 Unit Value with a 5.8% ROI.

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May 10th, 2023 MLB Baseball Betting Cards details:

Model 5.3 adjustment:

Yesterday’s 6 unit play by Arizona was devastating to the card as it had big wins early and created an overall loss on the card. Today’s model adjustment wouldn’t have saved the loss, but it would’ve mitigated and Risk Management is key when leaks are identified.

Reviewing all 4, 5, and 6 unit plays since May 1st has produced a 4-10 record for a loss of 45 units. Those with Bonus units are 2-6 for a loss of 30 units. The new model adjustment removes the Bonus unit. Moving the max unit play to 5. These bets should prove profitable due to the positve eROI, but due to their rarirty of about 1 per day they are really sinking overall card performance when most other bets are around the 2-3 unit range.

On the reverse side the Runts have been outperforming expectations since their implementation. Perhaps it’s a Baseball thing where teams get hot and cold and injuries shift the balance of power. Either way it’s currently working to bet these game and by making sure they have a minimum of 3% eROI they should prove valuable over time. Going forward all Runts plays are now 3 units unless reduced due to Penalty Box standings (now Oakland can really feel the pain with it’s 2 unit reduction).

These overall changes should keep games more balanced in unit size as the disparity was making certain games worthless. The Rangers last night was an example of a 1 unit play going against the Diamondbacks 6 unit play. Sure the Rangers winning would incrementally add to the card’s profits, but nowhere near impactful of the Dbacks performance.

Lastly these changes will also press the overall dominance of Runts as they are on the verge of surpassing the Main bets in profitabilty after just one week of implementation.

*FINAL Results:

**I created a PGA Golf betting card for the AT&T Byron Nelson tournament this weekend. Tee times swing off Thursday morning, so be sure to check it out before then.

Also the Wells Fargo tournament last week was very rewarding. It had 4 hits in the top 10. The card ended up generating 124% ROI!

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Glossary of terms:

• Card: Denotes the reason for team selection
  • Main: The main choice for a bet, criteria is any team favored to win a game with a >50% WP% and eROI >0.
  • Runts: Underdogs in terms of WP% that were selected as bets after the Favorite couldn’t be bet due to unfavorable odds (negative eROI after line shopping). Must be > 3% in terms of eROI for Runts card qualification, otherwise entire game is scratched from card.
    • All Runts bets are 2 units; or 1 if the team is in bottom 5 of season profitability as seen on my Season Results page.

• WP% = Win Probability %
  • This is the key to my model, I source these typically from Fangraphs as they do a pretty accurate job based on backtesting of past data. I also add my own adjustments to make them more accurate. The data as a whole is accurate, but at a team level it has some variation. My adjustment adds or subtracts to the WP based on winning records of teams playing.
• ML Odds = The Moneyline odds that the sportsbook is offering for the bet
• BE ML = Breakeven Moneyline
  • This is a calculation to convert the Moneyline into a percentage format to highlight how often the bet would have to win to show a breakeven in money won/loss on a bet with the given odds.
• eROI = expected Return on Investment
  • This is the expected Return on Investment a bet would return overtime if we were able to consistently place a similar bet. The formula is WP/BE ML.
  • For example a bet with an eROI of 10% would be expected to show a net profit of 10% over the true odds. If a bet had a WP = 50%, meaning it would win half the time, we would expect to show a profit of 10% on our bets if we won 5 and lost 5.
• Unit size terms = These are factors I’m using to determine the appropriate unit size to bet
  • Base = (WP%-45%)/5%. It is rounded down to each whole interval so that only bets with WP 50% or greater will be eligible for a bet. Maximum of 3 units.
  • Edge= awards a bonus unit for each eROI / 5% > 1. Maximum of 2 units.
  • Team = 1 unit penalty due to team being in bottom 5 of season profitability
  • Bonus= awards a single bonus unit when Base and Edge units are equal to 2+ each in size.

May Adjustment

• I’ve alluded to the idea of adjusting unit values and the beginning of a given month seems an appropriate time for a 6 month season of baseball
• Entering May the bankroll for the season is up over 60 units.
  • Assuming the initial bankroll to start the season was 100 Units that means so far the bankroll has increased over 60% and in order to see relative gains throughout the season we need to increase unit sizes.
  • A safe measure of increase is 30%, about half of the gains so far this season.
• Going forward the Unit Values will be adjusted from $1 to $1.30
  • The plan is to report all unit gains in terms of the orginal season starting value of $1, but know that the daily value of those units wagered going forward are now higher.

Model 5.2 update:

Currently the Runts card has a 3% threshold in place for eROI and it just made sense to apply the same standards to the Main card picks.

The data I have on hand of bets made so far this season support this decision.

• Since the beginning of the season there have been 94 Main card picks with a sub 3% eROI. These picks have resulted in a net profit of 2 units.
• Going back to just April 12th there have been 57 such Main card picks resulting in a net loss of 22 units.

With this minor change it will have minimal impact on the overall picks produced each day, maybe throwing some more the Runts way and creating more profit. But overall it should be a small change that helps improve overall eROI as these low value plays are removed from consideration going forward.

Model 5.12:

The Team Penalty unit which currently deducts one unit off all eligible bets for a team if that team is currently in the bottom 5 of profitability on the season (See 2023 MLB Betting Results teams data). This list is dynamic as it changes each day, but going forward to prevent Oakland or any other future team from being a drain of underpeformance I’ve upped the penalty to 2 units for the last place team. Note that these penalties will never reduce bet size to less than 1 unit if the team is eligible for a bet.

The overall goal here is increase the volume of plays while reducing risk. As a result the finances of your bankroll should improve as the strategy should capitalize on postive ROI plays resulting in more overall units won/ profits in a faster timeframe.

Model 5.11 Update:

RUNTS card added. These are opposite picks of bets that failed to materialize for a certain team due to negative eROI. They are added if a targeted MAIN card favorite team doesn’t have a positve eROI after line shopping. The opposing team is then reviewed for a positive eROI of 3%+. If that is the case then the RUNT team is added as a bet and at a fixed unit size of 2.

A second minor change with Model 5.11 is that I added a Unit Reduction factor called Team. This is a flag of the bottom 5 teams in profitability that you can review each day in my 2023 MLB Seasons Results page. The idea is that these teams have already burned me quite a bit this year, so they will be penalized 1 unit so that I’m not stretching a bigger bet on teams that just have trouble winning when needed. This list is dynamic each day so the bottom 5 teams could be different if somehow these reduced bets or RUNT cards get these teams back in my good graces.

Model 5.0 Update:

Base Units needed to be recalibrated to allow 1 unit bets to return. Previous Model had 1 base unit for every 5% of Win Probability % (WP%) above 45%. Due to recent adjustments in the Model no bets under 50% were no longer being placed, so no bet of 1 unit was possible.

New Model scales up Base Unit floor to 50% on the WP% and allows up to 3 units for every level of 5% above it.

In addition a Bonus unit was added if both the Base Unit and Edge Units were each providing at least 2 Units apiece on a given bet. Meaning now up to 6 units is the new Max Unit size that is feasible.

For example, any bet where WP% >60% will provide 3 Base Units and containing an eROI > 10% will provide an additional 2 Edge Units and since both Unit sources are 2+ in size a bonus unit is added to give us a 6 unit bet .

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Also, I had a PGA betting card for the Well’s Fargo Championship this past weekend. I provide a detailed step by step process on how I created the card and also includes a list of my top ranked players that I used to make the selections.

The Mexico Open PGA Tournament just wrapped up this weekend prior. If you are into golf betting, considering it, or just curious about how I apply my betting strategies to a different sport I highly suggest you check it out.

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