- Check out the full season 2023 MLB Betting Results
June 30, 2023 MLB Baseball Betting Cards details:
Model 8.5:
I’m moving the model back to a logical spot with today’s change. Recently I focused too much on season results to force the model’s criteria. This is good, but it’s important to not overfit the model as it could be suggestive of luck and not the actual long term trajectory.
To bring the model back towards logic. I’m going to have the eROI criteria scale up as the odds get worse from a BE ML perspective. Recently I had a bubble in the eROI criteria for the 50-55% BE ML range odds, instead I’m making the cutoff more linear.
Changes:
- All bets with positive odds, BE ML <50% (ex. +100, +120, +200):
- The qualifying bet criteria is that the eROI has to be >=6.5%
- All bets with negative odds through BE ML =<65% (ex. -101, -120, -200):
- The qualifying bet criteria is that the eROI has to be >=10%
- All bets with BE ML >65% (worst than -180, odds -181 or higher):
- These bets will be automatically disqualified and no bet will be allowed no matter what
These changes keep the model grounded in logic as I’ve noticed that the Runt bets have vastly outperformed the Mains bets so far this season. The big reason is that they are positive odds bets and as a result are winning more than the implied odds of the BE ML suggested. This is just the nature of parity in the MLB where teams are good enough to win on any given night no matter their opponent. It’s hard to count any team ever out of it completely before the first pitch.
As a result the model going forward will maintain its current Runts criteria, with a slight dip down to 6.5%+ eROI, while being more selective on the negative odds games with higher criteria at 10%+ eROI.
We want to make sure we are getting enough value to compensate on the Main negative odds games and right now the season data is iffy on whether there is value to be had in these games as it’s performing closer to a random coinflip on most nights.
*See Glossary for details to help explain terms and other recent model changes.
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