- Check out the full season 2023 MLB Betting Results
June 29, 2023 MLB Baseball Betting Cards details:
Model 8.4:
Some more eROI qualifications expansions. Today the eROI for games with BE ML between 55-65% and those under 50% will be lowered down from 4.5% to 2%. This will increase game volume a little further and shows backtested profitability for the month of June so far.
- The coin flip games – BE ML 50-55%, those with odds of -101 to -120, have proved to be just that, coin flips. The idea is to keep the eROI qualifications higher at 9% on them as they’ve been underperforming and the odds aren’t really doing justice.
- The higher negative odds, BE ML >55% & <65%, games are holding their own and that’s likely because both the books lines and the lines from the model are in sync in determining these teams are likely winners at an above average clip.
- In reverse the positive odds games, those here just under BE ML 50%. Are performing like coin-flips here and the extra juice from the positive odds is proving profitable.
The working theory is that the smaller sample size here and bad luck in the beginning of the year led to these bet types to underperform and they are currently course correcting. Monitoring of game performance of these qualification expansions is ongoing and if the profitability turns back to negative, I’ll likely tighten up the model again.
Daily Notes:
Added STL and ARI to card just before noon.
*See Glossary for details to help explain terms and other recent model changes.
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