- Check out the full season 2023 MLB Betting Results
June 28, 2023 MLB Baseball Betting Cards details:
Model 8.3:
A minor adjustment. I made a mistake when placing the STL bet today. I overlooked the edge criteria knocking off the 3 base units as the odds were in the BE ML range of 50-55%. In this scenario bets need to have eROI >10% to qualify. It was only at 9.1%.
Instead of retracting the bet for a small loss to the book or moving the bet to the shadow docket, I instead reviewed the back data and declared the bet justified.
It’s not the best justification as the overall June bets for games with 50-55% BE ML and eROI between 9-10% is currently -2.76 units. Its a 2-3 record meaning there isn’t much sample size here to review. Also if today’s game wins then this lower eROI cutoff of 9% will swing to positive profitability.
Going forward all bets in the 50%-55% BE ML range only need eROI >9% to qualify.
*See Glossary for details to help explain terms and other recent model changes.
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