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June 27, 2023 MLB Baseball Betting Cards details:

Model 8.2:

Too much generalization of the negative odds bets led to an overzealous return. Yes it’s true that June has proven fruitful for negative odds bets, but certain aspects of them still are unprofitable and I didn’t dive deep enough to extract them out in heralding the return of negative odds bets (Bets such as -101, -120, -200 etc.).

I dived into the groupings and I wanted to make sure the sample size was large enough to warrant valid inferences. Below is the research of negative odds bets that will drive the new changes:

Negative Odds Bets May-June review (assuming 3 unit bets):

  • Overall Negative Odds: BE ML>=50% & eROI >=4.5%
    • May & June: 123-93 (56.9%), -25.6 units
      • May: 48-50 (49.0%), -63.9 units
      • June: 75-43 (63.6%), +28.6 units

The tide overall for negative odds bets turned in June and that’s why I turned them back on. As theoretically they should be profitable as long as eROI is positive. May games just proved to be dreadful for these types of bets.

Deeper Dive into groupings:

50-55% Range:

  • (BE ML>=50% & <55%) & eROI >=4.5%
  • May & June: 36-38 (48.6%), -15 units
    • May: 15-18 (45.5%), -12.8 units
    • June: 21-20 (51.2%), -2.1 units

  • (BE ML>=50% & <55%) & eROI >=10%
  • May & June: 21-26 (44.7%), -21.1 units
    • May: 4-12 (25%), -25.6 units
    • June: 17-14 (54.8%), +4.5 units | 14.5% ROI

This is why the edge in these games between 50-55% BE ML were bumped to 10%+ on eROI.

55-60% Range:

  • (BE ML>=55% & <60%) & eROI >=4.5%
  • May & June: 36-32 (44.7%), -16.2 units
    • May: 14-19 (42.4%), -26.1 units
    • June: 22-13 (62.9%), +9.9 units | 9.4% ROI
  • (BE ML>=55% & <60%) & eROI >=10%
  • May & June: 19-19 (50%), -14.9 units
    • May: 7-12 (36.8%), -20.7 units
    • June: 12-7 (63.2%), +5.9 units | 10.3% ROI

In the 55-60% BE ML range I would lean towards the 4.5% eROI cutoff as the goal is to show maximum profit. Higher ROI is good, but translating it into overall profit is better by taking advantage of the bankroll each day. It’s better to sacrifice some ROI if it translates into more volume and overall profit.

60-65% Range:

  • (BE ML>=60% & <65%) & eROI >=4.5%
  • May & June: 36-14 (72%), +23.4 units
    • May: 12-9 (57.1%), -5.2 units
    • June: 24-5 (82.8%), +28.6 units | 32.9% ROI
  • (BE ML>=60% & <65%) & eROI >=10%
  • May & June: 36-14 (72%), +17.9 units
    • May: 7-5 (58.3%), -2 units
    • June: 16-3 (84.2%), +19.9 units | 34.9% ROI

Again leaning towards the 4.5% eROI cutoff as the goal is to show maximum profit.

65+% Range:

  • BE ML>=65% & eROI >=4.5%
  • May & June: 36-14 (72%), -14.8 units
    • May: 9-6 (60%), -7 units
    • June: 10-7 (58.8%), -7.8 units

The 65+% BE MLgames are lacking in sample size and they are showing negative profit. I’m eliminating them going forward. I had a similar ban in place in earlier models banning games with odds around -180. This solidifies it as 65% BE ML is -186, so any game higher than -185 will not be bet going forward.

Recap of new model criteria:

  • Main: WP 50+%
    • BE ML: various cutoffs
      • BE ML between 50-55%, eROI >10%
      • BE ML between 55%-65%, eROI>4.5%
      • BE ML 65+% = NO BET
  • Runts: WP <50%
    • BE ML: <50% and eROI>7%

*See Glossary for details to help explain terms and other recent model changes.

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By Taylor Moore

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