- Check out the full season 2023 MLB Betting Results
June 24, 2023 MLB Baseball Betting Cards details:
Model 8.1:
I mentioned the other day how Runts have been achieving stellar ROI. I’ve decided to move all Runts bets up to 3 units. All bets are now 3 units.
In addition I mentioned how it’s important to stay on top of trends as sports is a game of streaks and teams get hot and cold. With that same philosophy I approach sportsbetting the same way. The key is to stay ahead of trends. I noticed that heavy favorite teams seem to be winning more towards expectations recently. The model’s underlying theory is that if the expected ROI is positive then the profits should trend that way.
Since the beginning of June there have been 71 games with BE ML odds >55% and WP%> 50%. Heavy favorite games I would not bet in past models. These games have a record of 51-20. Tides appear to be changing back to expectations. I previously had shunned Negative odds bets of this nature as they were losing a lot more than expectations and resulting in negative profit. It’s time to flip them back on.
The new model now brings back the 50%+ BE ML odds bets and maintains the positive eROI to ideally keep the profit flowing.
Here is the new betting criteria:
MAINS: WP% >=50%, eROI >4.5% except if BE ML >50% & <55% then the eROI has to be 10%+
- Example: All bets with negative odds between -101 & -122 have implied BE ML of 50%-55%. If these are the best odds the eROI needs to be 10% for these games to qualify for a bet.
- The reason for this middle bubble of inflated eROI qualification is that the games have proven to be negative at the lower eROI. Most likely due to these games being closer to true coin flips. We really want the odds to be in our favor if we are going to bet these games, hence the higher eROI criteria.
Runts: WP%<50%, eROI>7%
- Runts are chosen only if the Main bet fails to qualify on the criteria above. There really should not be a case where both type of bets should qualify otherwise a betting arbitrage opportunity is presenting itself.
And best of all that brings back the big game card. I’m all about churning volume. I’d rather do it through game quantity vs unit quantity. This way variance is offset and expectations are smoother over time of expected bankroll performance.
*See Glossary for details to help explain terms and other recent model changes.
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