- Check out the full season 2023 MLB Betting Results
June 21, 2023 MLB Baseball Betting Cards details:
Model 8.0:
Small change to move eROI of Mains down to 4.5%. The White Sox game was just under the threshold of 5% and review of the data shows only one other game so far between 4.5% and 5% which ended up being a winner. The change to 4.5% was approved as a result.
Recap of current Model betting qualifications:
All bets have to have BE ML < 50%, meaning +100 or better (plus odds)
- MAIN bet: WP%>=50% and eROI > 4.5%
- RUNTS bet: WP <50% and eROI > 7%
Backtested results based on current model criteria since April 10th:
(Date chosen to give model at least 9 days of games to start season as current Adjustor looks back in 9 day cycles each day)
- MAIN:
- 150 bets @ 3 units per bet = 450 total units bet
- 74 wins – 76 losses, 49.3%
- net profit +49.14 units
- ROI: +10.92%
- RUNTS:
- 107 bets @ 2 units per bet = 214 total units bet
- 49 wins – 58 losses, 45.8%
- net profit +44.22 units
- ROI: +20.66%
I won’t make the change today, but based on the ROI of the bet types I should probably switch the unit sizes as the RUNTS are more profitable. Although the MAINs produce more volume. I had MAINS the bigger unit size due to the likelihood they should more often than they lose. A way to hopefully reduce ruin as the odds should be in favor in a win occurring. A change I’ll ponder as my next set of model adjustments will likely involve unit sizing determinations as I re-examine overall profitability trends for certain bet qualifications.
*Final Results:
*See Glossary for details to help explain terms and other recent model changes.
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