- Check out the full season 2023 MLB Betting Results
June 20, 2023 MLB Baseball Betting Cards details:
No Model Changes
A large card today with 9 games for 24 units. The Contra bets are not mised at all.
Some philiosophical notes in regards to the current model:
After getting all the bets in I checked the data for the season and tested some model changes. Unfortunately there is no obvious betting edge outside the current Main & Runts designations that I can find.
- CONTRA bets and their opposite, bets with negative odds and positive eROI, look to be officially dead in MLB betting as I can’t find a profitable angle to justify betting them.
- This is alright as I doubted there would be one magic elixir angle that would outwit the sportsbook’s lines. To me it hardens at least one idea that I’ve had in that things are always fluid and as long as we stay ahead of trends we should be able to ride the profit wave before books catch on.
- Take Cincinnati this season, they’ve been performing way better than books have been giving them credit. My back data shows that Cincinnati’s averaged about a 45% BE ML betting line this season, despite now sporting a 52.1% win rate. On the other hand Houston has averaged a 58% BE ML betting line this season and a 53% win rate.
My backtested data is showing heavy favorite wins in April, but since May it’s been leaning towards the underdogs as being betting winners. If the model held firm to it’s April stance it would be showing overall losers in profit today.
These overall data points are to highlight the trends of betting lines and finding betting edges. It’s about reviewing recent betting trends also to make sure that the overall tide hasn’t turned by reviewing large chunks of recent games to make sure there’s meaningful sample size. They can be applied to each sport, but it’s about identifying the trends and staying ahead of the books.
- Right now the MLB edge is keep the odds in our favor by taking bets that pay better than coin-flip odds for games that perform like random coin flips at times.
- The overall WP% should likely balance out across all of MLB, but the problem is at each individual team as players come and go. It can take some time before the book’s adjust when these team dynamics have changed instantly with new players. By keeping all bets on the underdog side we have a shot to have these new winners work their magic while not losing too much on the general underdogs as we keep the eROI% positive.
- It can be much more devastating to be betting heavy favorites that no longer have the pieces to win like big favorites and have their unfavorable odds working disastrously against us.
Overall I like where the current model is and I doubt in professional sports leagues where each team has a shot at finding parity throughout the season that betting negative odds over a whole season can be profitable. Unlike in College sports, where teams are pretty much locked into their recruiting classes throughout a single season. There’s no calling up of minor league players and seeing if they can change the tide, maybe a back up QB takes over, but it rarely is a massive upgrade capable of changing a team’s fortunes. Unlike MLB where a touted prospect can make their debut any day and help light fire for their major league squad.
*Final Results:
*See Glossary for details to help explain terms and other recent model changes.
___________________________________
___
