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June 14, 2023 MLB Baseball Betting Cards details:
No Model changes today.
The streak is unbelievable right now. Being led by Oakland with CIncinnati and recently the Angels just behind them. After each big daily win it’s like I’m Connor McCleod getting a Quickening.
“There can be only one!”… Either us or the sportsbooks as winners of the daily prize.
Oakland will continue to lead the charge today along with the Angels, but unfortunately the Reds have become villians to the model today.
- I mentioned it could happen yesterday and today it became true. Just like Batman in Dark Knight, “You Either Die A Hero, Or You Live Long Enough To See Yourself Become The Villain“.
- The problem with this great Cincinnati Renaissance is that the lines have now moved outside the boundaries of the current model’s parameters. The opening line for Cincinnati was -110 on FD with a +26.9% eROI, automatically flipping it to FD-Contra and forcing a bet for Kansas City. With it being negative odds this game would’ve been a no go for Cincinnati either way so today they become the villian.
In regards to CONTRA, i had a conversation with fellow members of the syndicate here and it makes sense as one member has a series bet for Cincinnati to sweep here. They mentioned how hard it will be for them to win tomorrow as they’ve really taxed their bulpen the last few games. This is where it clicked for CONTRA bets, it’s not a complete answer but it helps chip away at the mystery of CONTRA’s backtested success.
- A quick recap, since May 1st my model is showing 37 bets that would’ve been CONTRA resulting in a 25-12 record for +16.3 Units won on 37 bet. A ROI of 44%.
- CONTRA bets have stumbled out of the gate, but the backtested ROI is still spectacular. Again these bets make no sense as the eROI is negative and I’m referring to them on the card as to what the eROI of the opposite pick of the match is suggesting. These are games where there should be large value to bet the heavy favorite with negative odds, but the taxed bullpen helps explain away the mystery of why they don’t win.
- I doubt Fangraphs tracks bullpen usage in their WP% calculation and my model ups the WP% further with how much a team’s been overperforming the last 9 days. The taxed bullpen is not factored anywhere, but it makes sense if they are overperforming due to stressing out the bullpen, which is often the case if you’re going to win close games.
Perhaps there’s hope on the horizon for CONTRA bets to prove profitable with actual results.
*Final Results:
*See Glossary for details to help explain terms and other recent model changes.
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