- Check out the full season 2023 MLB Betting Results
July 8, 2023 MLB Baseball Betting Cards details:
Model 8.6:
3 losing days in a row demands some sort of change. I dug around the model to see if anything could be adjusted and landed on a few changes.
- All bets will need at least 6.5% eROI to qualify, but a cap of 25% eROI will disqualify a bet. This is similar to the Contra bets I had in place previously, but this time no forced Runt will be placed.
- This change will result in some setbacks to daily game volume as less games will now qualify. In response I’ve also upped the unit sizes to 4 going forward.
- The unit size change is acceptable as the past data from June to present was showing a projected return of 13.5% on qualified games with the previous criteria while the new criteria raises that return to 18.5%.
This will reduce my bankroll churn volume from 40 games to 30 games. A little risky but as I pointed out the tighter qualification criteria should improve game selection quality.
Other notes:
The logical reasoning for this is due to my adjustor which is shaking games loose to highlight an edge to the books. I backtested removing the adjustor and my game volume dropped dramatically and an overall projected loss resulted in games left that qualified. This meant that although my adjustor may be inaccurate in terms of determining WP% correctly it is presenting opportunites mostly on the Runts bet types, which is due to the odds being in our favor each game on them.
What this means is that my adjustor may be adjusting too much, but not all games are being similarly impacted. To counteract this and prevent damage to my bankroll i’ve removed all games with an eROI >25% as that means my adjustor is going way beyond in value to what the books would ever reasonably give up. MLB is a sport of parity and there should rarely be games where the edge is truly that large, College sports may be differerent and that’s what I used to build my initial model for MLB.
*See Glossary for details to help explain terms and other recent model changes.
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