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July 31, 2023 MLB Baseball Betting Cards details:
I’ve made a flurry of model changes recently. I have one more and I think I’ll be done for awhile. Today’s change doesn’t touch the guts of the model, but is a bankroll management adjustment.
Model 9.4:
Today’s model adjustment involves the addition of Round Robins.
What are Round Robins?
Round Robins are super parlays in that they are bets where every game is parlayed with one another. Now first off I would suggest to tread lightly if one is following me here as I would normally advise against parlays in general.
- If you review all my card’s this season, you’ll find that I’ve only swept 3 cards so far this season. Hence why I highly advise against parlays due to their payoff rarity, especially when greater than 2 games. But if one is inclined to test out parlays I would suggest Round Robins as they create combinations of all games in a card and parlay them. It provides some measure of safety in that you don’t have to be exactly perfect to start profiting off them, which is more or less what my daily cards do each day by profitting off .500 records.
If you are at all familiar with the Stock Market then the idea of options and leverage may be terms you’ve come across. I like to think of Parlays and Round Robins as leveraged options for Sports Betting.
If you like 2 games as a lock, then you would be better off parlaying them to increase that profit. But if you have concerns about risk, which you should, then I’d suggest avoiding most parlays. However if you have a long term advantage in your picks then juicing them further with parlays could be a smart move to increase your profits.
Now I’ve been treading water in the profit zone this season, but its been a bit of a grind lately. My forte is producing daily cards of a handful of games and hopefully splitting them or better to show profit. Round Robins can provide juice in that the days that I win more than half then my profits become supercharged or leveraged up.
I’ve run some test scenarios using a parlay calculator and if I focus on 4 game Round Robins set to combinations of 2 then I should show long term profit if I can win 3 or more games at least once for every 2 times I only win 1 game cards or less. If I miraculously win all 4 I’ll be set for awhile on Round Robins before 1 or 0 game win cards catch back up to me.
- I forgot to mention the combination part for the unitiated. So Round Robins are like parlays where you pick the teams you want to win and put them all in one card. Then there will be a choice to parlay alone or Round Robin them if your book offers it. If Round Robin is selected then you have the decision of picking the combinations you want. I suggest using the parlay calculator link I provided above to test scenarios, but ideally you would only want to pick one combination set. More than one combination is just wasting bets on extraneous combinations that reduce your overall profit if you had a projected baseline of wins in the card you were expecting instead.
- Me, personally, I usually go for half of my game count selection or half minus 1. This provides enough slack where the card will return some money back if only a few games hit as opposed to losing my whole bet if all but one wins. Again this is a leverage tool so one has to be careful to not set themselves up for disaster.
- The combinations then create parlays of all the games selected in groupings of 2,3,4, or however many you select. Again I find about half the game count selected minus 1 as my preferred combination pairing.
- Also when making the stake size the books often ask how much you want to bet on each combination. They will usually provide the number of combinations you selected and be sure you have your bet size right as these could create thousands of different combinations and 10 cents is often the bet size minimum here. They combine for a large total bet as a whole so check your math before submitting.
How am I applying Round Robins?
I will be looking to produce Daily cards of 4 games minimum on full slate days, and this is the Round Robin game count I’ve tested out. I don’t want to lever up too much as again it can still be risky, but when it pays off it pays big still or at least provides a muted return on days of 2 wins. So my implementation of it will be to bet combinations in total to half of one of my regular bets (Rounded Down for risk aversion).
Right now my current bet size is 7 units. I will continue to flat bet all qualified games each day, but then I will add a 4 game Round Robin equal to 3 units total as a way to provide some extra juice to the card.
Current Missing Lines/Close Lines:
These are games missing lines currently or games that I’m looking to check back on as the best lines I’ve found so far are close to qualifying for a bet. The line indicated is what will qualify the bet, parentheses is the closest odds I’ve found.
0 games missing lines:
NYY +140– Added at +150ARI +160
Last checked @ 6:30 PM,
I apologize, I know I declared card final at noon, but was doing another odd check around 6:30 here and I really like the value the Yankees game is showing. I didn’t expect it to move from +130 to +150, but it did so I’m locking it in to the main Moneyline card.
CARD IS FINAL!
DAILY CARD:
ROUND ROBIN:
Will be the Top 4 games in the Daily card based on ML Odds, shaded in light blue on card
- Game Count: CLE, COL, LAA, WSN
- Parlay Size: Combinations of 2
- Wager: 3 Units total/ 0.5 Units per combination
- Max Potential Payout: 22.67 Units
Round Robin Results: Won 3/4, Total payout of $11.76, Profit of $8.76
Total Daily Results: +32.56 units
*See Glossary for details to help explain terms and other recent model changes.
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