July 28, 2023 – MLB Daily Sports Betting Card and Odds

• Check out the full season 2023 MLB Betting Results

July 28, 2023 MLB Baseball Betting Cards details:

Sorry for the gap, Wednesday was a nice bounceback from Tuesday’s sweep. Thursday had little action with one DoubleHeader which I find hard games for the model to cap so I skipped the day.

MODEL 9.2:

During Wednesday I looked over at the model further and the fact that Mains were underperforming to Runts has been irking me. The eROI criteria is being increased to get backtested performance above 30% like RUNTS. Also I’m making some changes to Unit Sizes and reporting.

eROI changes:

• MAINS now qualify if the eROI >=13%.
  • NO BE ML criteria as it will be near impossible for a negative odds game to qualify with such a high eROI hurdle.
• RUNTS bets criteria remains at the recent model adjustment level of eROI >= 18%
• There is no cap on eROI, it can go to the moon and the bet will still qualify.
  • I blame negative performance at high levels on lack of sample size at this point.

Unit changes:

• All units will be set to a base of 5 units right now for both MAIN and RUNTS.
• Backtesting has both at a performance above 30% ROI with the current parameters.

Unit Reporting:

• The adjustments have been confusing some folks so I’m going to try to clean it up and keep it as simple as possible. The idea was to recalculate the unit sizes so others could translate towards their own bankroll to the appropriate size necessary.
• I’m currently using 5 units as my base as the idea is that a single unit represents 1% of an initial bankroll. In MLB betting I’m comfortable with each base bet representing 5% of my starting bankroll, which is 20 games of churn.
  • I think I want to get closer to 25-30 but it will be evaluated further as 40 game churn started to feel too small and <20 is too risky in my opinion.
• With the 5 unit base, I’m applying the monthly adjustments as I want to bet according to my current bankroll size not just my initial. I adjust the unit value on the 1st of each month, so a new one is due in a few days, and for July it’s currently 1.4.
• This means that my standard July bet is 7 units total in relation to my initial bankroll. All final bet sizes and profit figures will be in relation to the inital bankroll unit size.
  • Hopefully this makes things a bit clearer as to my bet sizing.
• Lastly I added a new feature to the daily cards called BR-Churn. This will highlight the bet sizes relation to my current bankroll each day. Today’s games have bet sizes equal to 23.6 games.
  • This 23.6 game churn is how many times I could make this bet before exhausting my current bankroll.
  • It’s based off my initial bankroll size of 100 units plus the current reported profit of 65.18 units.
  • The games today are equal to 7 units
  • 7 / 165.18 = 4.237% of my bankroll
  • 1/.04237 = 23.6 games

Current Missing Lines/Close Lines:

These are games missing lines currently or games that I’m looking to check back on as the best lines I’ve found so far are close to qualifying for a bet. The line indicated is what will qualify the bet.

None today since I posted this right before the first game start.

Last checked @ 5:30 PM, CARD IS FINAL

DAILY CARD:

*See Glossary for details to help explain terms and other recent model changes.

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