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July 26, 2023 MLB Baseball Betting Cards details:

Well yesterday was quite the bloodbath, worst day of the season unit value wise. Lost 42 Unit Value on a clean sweep of all 6 games.

  • I had a weird zen moment where I just kind of expected and accepted it. Could be the nice two day run up to this moment along with reasonable bankroll management that lets me live to fight another day.
  • The loss only knocks me back to where I was two days ago, so the setback doesn’t seem as devastating.
  • It hurts, but can only charge forward and put it in the back burner as nothing stops this train!

MODEL 9.1:

I was working on some minor tweaks to the model before games started yesterday as the HOT! criteria cutoffs were agonizing me.

HOT! bets:

  • Since May 1st (time to give the new 90 day WP% comparison adjustor room to work as it backtests weird in April with a smaller sample of games to start season), there have been 7 Main bets >=30% eROI. They’ve gone 2-6 with -9.6 units
  • Same time frame there have been 4 bets on the RUNTS side >= 40% eROI (2 of them in last 3 days). They’ve gone 0-4 for -24 units.
  • These are proving to be losing bets, but it goes counter to the models theory of finding value in the eROI and profiting off it. I do admit that the sample size is rather small with just 12 total games here.
  • There probably is something here where books have their WP% better calculated than mine in these games, but I’m not going to try to spend a whole bunch of effort on digging too deep into trying to counter it as these represent less than 2% of all my bet games this season.
  • Going forward in the new model I’m unleashing the HOT! cap and accepting any bet. I’ll just cap the units so that they max out at 6 units no matter how high the eROI gets.
  • I would expect the sample size to turn in my favor in a few future games and may not get past 20 total of these by end of the season. So I’m done wasting any more effort agonizing over them.

L90 Adjustor Cap:

After unleashing the HOT! cap I looked at the L90 Adjustor. I had previously capped that also at -10% or 10% depending on specific team performance the last 90 days with actual win record to Fangraphs median WP% for their games. This is to adjust the model so it’s calibrated better to team performance. Few teams exceeded this cap so I’m unleashing it as ideally it’s a logical calibration that should improve the accuracy of the WP% I’m using to calculate eROI each game.

  • The Red’s currently are exceeding Fangraph’s base WP% by +15.6% for the top adjustment.
  • The Royals are at the bottom underperforming by -14.4%.
  • I’ll display these adjustment factors on my MLB Season Results page next to the Teams Profit performance at the bottom of the page as they get slight adjustments each day,

eROI changes and Edge Units:

  • I did some other backtesting and determined that the eROI criteria for MAIN bets should move up to 10% for any bet where the BE ML odds >50% (Negative odds). These have shown to be unprofitable any lower and in fact no bet has qualified with this criteria since May 1st.
  • On the MAINS with BE ML odds <= 50%, (Positive Odds), the eROI remains at 5%
  • The Edge Units on MAINs need to exceed 12% to qualify for edge unit to apply, with another one awarded if the bet gets above 22% eROI.
    • On the RUNTS bets this remains at increments of 10% starting at 20% and a 2nd one at 30%.
  • A final change to RUNTS the eROI criteria is moving to 18% from 17%. A very minor change that maximizes backtesting performance.

Current Missing Lines/Close Lines:

These are games missing lines currently or games that I’m looking to check back on as the best lines I’ve found so far are close to qualifying for a bet. The line indicated is what will qualify the bet.

Missing lines:

Close lines:

  • 6:05 PM | BAL +107
  • 6:40 PM | LAA +100
  • 8:10 PM | TEX +170

LATE ADDITIONS:

  • 9:45 PM | OAK +210
    • Welcoming B365 back to the books I’ll actively use for MLB as Pointsbet would only let me place half the bet down. Somehow they let me place the full Miami bet today, but I’m going to cash out and cut them from the rotation after Miami game.

Last checked @ 10 AM, CARD IS FINAL as all games have lines posted and I’m not going to monitor any further today.

Despite the full slate of games, it’s a light volume day due to lack of qualifying of lines.

DAILY CARD:

*See Glossary for details to help explain terms and other recent model changes.

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By Taylor Moore

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