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July 25, 2023 MLB Baseball Betting Cards details:
No changes to model today.
- Another awesome day to match Sunday’s card, hit 3 of 4 games again. But this time finally cashed on the 6 unit bomb that was Pittsburgh +210 with no sweat.
- Of note the overall profit is at a season high of 91.78 units.
- Since Model 9.0 has been implemented there have been 20 bets with a record of 10-10 (50%) and overall profit of 41.12 Unit Value on 130.2 Unit Value bet. That is an outstanding realized ROI of 31.6% with the new Model.
On a bummer note I just discovered that I’ve been limited over at Pointsbet. I hadn’t bet them all week and I’m barely above even with them so it seems a little odd. The vast majority of the bet for Baltimore today was put down at +115, but since no other book offered it I couldn’t get it all down at those odds and only put down 4 units total as the better odds would’ve qualifed for 5. I’ll likely look to cycle out Pointsbet for Bet365 which I abandoned at the beginning of the season as the lines were always in the middle of other books with no extra value on either side. Barstool is the one taking a beating on most of the wins this month, so hopefully things stay unlimited there.
Current Missing Lines/Close Lines:
These are games missing lines currently or games that I’m looking to check back on as the best lines I’ve found so far are close to qualifying for a bet.
Missing:
7:10 PM | ATL -110 or BOS +185
Close:
7:10 PM | KCR +190- Line moving away no book is above +175
7:40 PM | SEA +107- So close, some books hovering around +105. I won’t stretch if it doesn’t get there, but I’ll check one last time around 7 PM.
LATE ADDITION:
- 8:10 PM | TEX +128
- 9:45 PM | OAK +225
- 9:40 PM | PIT +230
- This +234 is the average of the 5 books I shop, putting the eROI for this runt at 40.8%, just above the cutoff. I have the eROI cutoff because the backtested data shows it to be an overall losing trend when it gets too high. I also saw Marcano for PIT go down with what looked like an ACL tear in last night’s game, so this may be one I just need to back off from.
- I am tempted to remove the excess cutoff for good as I’ve now won 1/2 so far in the new model on FORCED plays that were too HOT! and PIT did win big last night. Also I’m not looking for the line to go down as that means I’m missing out on value.
- This current criteria is tough as it’s a contradiction of the backtested data going against the goal of finding the best value. Decisions, Decisions.
- Game was added as all lines moved to +230 or lower to qualify. Forcing my hand to allow it as it’s now within the range. I believe I’m going to change model going forward to remove this hard cutoff as it’s contradictory.
Last checked @ 7 PM. Card is final, KC was working its way back to +190 and SEA was close to +107. I’m not taking them under the qualified line level and I’m done looking.
6 games is pretty a decent card size these days, let’s get it!
DAILY CARD:
*See Glossary for details to help explain terms and other recent model changes.
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