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July 22, 2023 MLB Baseball Betting Cards details:

A rough day yesterday. It started amazing with +200 Colorado easily winning, albeit a late add so apologies if you missed. Otherwise the rest of the card got swept. Every game was relatively close near the end and things just didn’t work out.

  • The Perdomo missed 2nd base tag really upset me, he basically hovered his foot over the bag to miss the force out in a rush to turn a double play. It would’ve ended the inning on the next batter and then McClain ended up hitting a Grand Slam two batters later.
  • The nature of beast here, hence why I have the new coin flip factor in the model as Lady Luck can be quite fickle.

No changes to model today. Give it time I trust the current setup.

Of note, the Baltimore game had +164 line from Fanduel. The other 4 books were +150×3 and +155×1. This averaged out to +153.8 which placed the eROI under the HOT! cutoff of 30%. This is why the game is a FORCE bet with 6 units. I know the hard eROI cutoff is weird, but the data shows it to be unprofitable when it gets too high. This should be a rare occurence and in the meantime I’m looking forward to riding the season’s most profitable team of the O’s to victory.

Lastly I’m adding a new feature here to highlight possible card additions. The past month I don’t think any day has had a full slate of lines ready to go the night prior. So I’m going to highlight the missing games here and what odds I need for a bet to qualify.

Current Missing Lines:

None, all games below are the final card for the day.

LATE ADDITION:

4:10 PM | ARI +100

DAILY CARD:

*See Glossary for details to help explain terms and other recent model changes.

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