- Check out the full season 2023 MLB Betting Results
July 15, 2023 MLB Baseball Betting Cards details:
No Model Changes.
Other notes:
Yesterday’s card was an amazing start to the 2nd half. Recovered almost all of the previous 5 card losing streak unit value.
Today is interesting in that there will be 18 MLB games, although only 17 will be available for a pregame bet as one is a suspended continuation from yesterday.
There are 4 games currently without lines, but I will not be making any late additions. Also shockingly every game of the available 13 displayed value today.
3 games had “HOT!” parameters and will not be bet. I will note these, but they are games that will not be bet as my backtested data has shown that when the model has high levels of eROI in a game they tend to be long-term losers in profitability. Ergo they are too “HOT!” to handle.
- BAL -115, WP% = 74%, eROI=38%
- Negative Odds bet where eROI exceeds 20%
- ATL -300 (BE ML=75%), WP% = 85%, eROI=13%
- Main Negative Odds bet where BE ML >65%
- COL +140, WP% = 58%, eROI=40%
- Positive Odds bet where eROI exceeds 30%
Overall there is a lot of action today and to be honest it kind of scares me as I’ve never seen value like this on every game. This card is a behemoth and could swing across the gamut of either the biggest daily loss on hand all the way to biggest daily win. We are coming of All Star Break so that could be causing chaos for linesmakers right now as all teams have reset and refreshed.
Also I made no changes to the model so there shouldn’t be anything on my end that’s triggering these deviations. The only thing that may be having an issue is my 9 day adjustor is now dealing with a 4 day break and only evaluating 5 games at most for teams, but it’s just the nature of the current model unless I opt to sit out for a week to let it rebuild. Which I’m not going to do.
I see no issue with the break in between as the adjustor is just a way to swing the WP% around for teams going through hot/cold streaks and the All Star Break should have reset most teams so it makes sense to let it roll with just 5 or so games under its belt for the next week.
Also I will most likely be unable to produce a card for Sunday so please don’t bother coming back nonstop looking for it. I appreciate the support here, but enjoy another mini break here.
*See Glossary for details to help explain terms and other recent model changes.
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GG and lets win!