July 14, 2023 – MLB Daily Sports Betting Card and Odds

• Check out the full season 2023 MLB Betting Results

July 14, 2023 MLB Baseball Betting Cards details:

No Model Changes.

Recap:

July has been in a downtrend. Currently on a 5 day losing streak, but the losses have been mild each day.

I like where the Model is currently. Current parameters are setup as follows:

• Main bets: WP = 50%+, eROI between 6.5% and 30%
  • Negative Odds, ML Odds > 50% = eROI between 6.5% and 20%
• Runt bets: WP <50%, eROI between 6.5% and 30%

Backtested results on season based on current parameters:

Assumes 4 units bet for qualified bets in backtested data

Season Results-

• Main bets:
  • 353 Qualified Bets
  • 196-157 (55.5% win rate)
  • 2,726 units bet, 71 units won = 2.6% ROI

• Runt bets:
  • 153 Qualified Bets
  • 72-81 (47.1% win rate)
  • 612 units bet, 136 units won = 22.2% ROI

June to July 9th Results-

• Main bets:
  • 147 Qualified Bets
  • 85-62 (57.8% win rate)
  • 588 units bet, 49 units won = 8.3% ROI

• Runt bets:
  • 62 Qualified Bets
  • 33-29 (53.2% win rate)
  • 248 units bet, 96 units won = 38.7% ROI

Other notes:

The betting card splits on the season page show performance about half of the backtested results above. This is because the Model evolves and this is showing the best possible performance based on the parameters currently in place. The Model has been using various other parameters until this point. The backtested data is an aspirational goal which the current parameters hope to achieve.

Also this weekend may be kind of light on activity for me and I likely will not be posting a card for Sunday.

LATE ADDS:

• Toronto -175
• Seattle -175

*See Glossary for details to help explain terms and other recent model changes.

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