July 1, 2023 – MLB Daily Sports Betting Card and Odds

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July 1, 2023 MLB Baseball Betting Cards details:

July Adjustment:

“Wake up, Wake up, it’s the 1st of da Month” and we’re going to be rocking the boys from Cleveland a 4th day in row despite them not performing much these days.

However, it’s the 1st of the month, the day I make adjustments to the unit value based on current bankroll size. At the beginning of the season I started with 100 units and treated each unit as the equivalent of 1% of the bankroll to start. Due to the bankroll showing profit, I would like to press the unit size, but not go overboard with the unit sizes to conserve the bankroll in case a significant downtrend appears. To combat this, I’ve tried to reset the unit value to about 0.8% at the beginning of each month.

With the current profit at 67 units, 1.4 units looks to be a good adjusment value as that represents 0.83% on 167 total units in bankroll size.

Thus for the month of July the unit value size will be 1.4 units.

I also mentioned previously that I’d like to see around 40 games of action with each churn through the bankroll. This unit value gets me right at 2.49% with the current 3 unit standard bet size which is right at the 40 game mark. (1/.025)=40

I’m considering the idea of lowering this game threshold down closer to 30, but I’ll do that by upping unit sizes if I decide to increase the risk later this month. For now I’ll embrace the larger bet sizes the first few days of the month and see how things go. The card’s are currently in the midst of a 5 game win streak, so I’m not going to try to rock the boat too much as Model 8.5 looks like a good setup currently.

*See Glossary for details to help explain terms and other recent model changes.

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