Posted on

August 7, 2023 MLB Baseball Betting Cards details:

There’s no sugar coating it, things are really bad right now. I looked to change things up the other day, but the backtested data in the current Model 9.5 is saying the Runts only at 13% and the L60 adjustor is the way to go. If I go back to July 24th there’s 10 units of profit, back to July 18th there’s 50 (based on 7 units testing). Hold the ship steady and this storm shall pass.

  • Also there’s been unfortunate timing on Oakland’s part of mounting some effort this season. I still believe in the Fade Oakland strategy and it should be expected to take some licks occaisonally. Based on their season performance this should prove a profitable strategy if their performance continues.
    • I understand new players and such can improve team dynamics, they’ve got a few new call ups on the bats side, but the bullpen is still pretty bad. I’m going to let the Oakland strategy ride out for at least 10 or so games before reevaluating it further if team dynamics have changed enough. It’s all about sample size and a 2 game series is not going to wash away an entire season of woe.

The bankroll management segment on churn has shrank the unit sizes down, so it’s fighting out of defense. I’m keeping the Round Robins at 3 units, I’ve previously stated it should be half the regular bet size rounded down. A 1 unit difference is marginal here in impact on top of the full daily card and provides the opportunity for leverage to pump up the bankroll if a 3 win day or more can pop.

Last checked @ 11:30 PM

CARD is FINAL!

  • The Round Robin will include top 4 games on today’s card based on ML odds.
    • A bet for 3 units total, combos of 2 for 0.5 units each

DAILY CARD:

ROUND ROBIN:

  • Bet: 3 units total
    • Picks: WSN/PIT/COL/CWS
  • Profit: +3.73 UNITS

Total Daily Results: +20.70 units

*See Glossary for details to help explain terms and other recent model changes.

___________________________________

___

Leave a Reply