- Check out the full season 2023 MLB Betting Results
August 5, 2023 MLB Baseball Betting Cards details:
Back on track with a small, but needed, win yesterday. A nice 2-2 for +6.52 units. The Round Robin performed as expected barely losing anything on the push. Normally they should produce some small profit on push days, but there were a lot of stretch bets at lower odds than normal to force the small loss. All in all a good day especially compared to the previous three.
MODEL 9.5:
I hinted at yesterday a small change in the Model. Well today it gets it’s debut, the FADE OAKLAND strategy!
Oakland killed me this week dropping the series to the Dodgers for a total of 21 units. 44.8 units going back to July 6th on it’s last 7. I’m just done with this team, they are the one team in the MLB that should be relegated out. They are just not of the same caliber.
- They sit at a .273 win percentage
- Their run differential is -274
- 119 worse than KCR who is 2nd worst at -155
- Lastly the Model’s backtested units since May show Oakland would lose me a total of 92.5 Units.
- The next worst backtested team is a tie between CLE and PHI at 14 units lost each.
Oakland is a poverty franchise lacking payroll and talent that just needs to move to Vegas and start anew, but until then I’m going to try to recoup my season losses on them by fading them every game for the rest of the year. Backtesting this strategy shows the following results:
Home Fade:
- 52 games, 37-15 record (71.7%), +38.6 units won
- It appears I’m missing a couple games from the season here, but I was previously deleting out games through May where I didn’t have lines at time of bet. Recently I’ve been backfilling them the next day even when I dont bet them.
Away Fade:
- 56 games, 41-15 (73.2%), +23.6 units won
Overall +62.2 units won on 756 units bet is 8.2% ROI on this strategy. I’ll probably be cautious and avoid anything worse than -300, but for now this is the new model strategy.
Key Data for today:
- 15 available MLB games to bet today
- Threshold of 4 games (25%) minimum will be bet
Last checked @ 11:30 AM
CARD is FINAL!
- The threshold of 4 games for the Daily card has been met.
- The Round Robin will include top 4 games on today’s card based on ML odds.
- A bet for 3 units total, pairs of 2s for 0.5 units each.
DAILY CARD:
ROUND ROBIN:
- Bet: 3 units total
- Picks: WSN/ KCR/ PIT/ COL
- Profit:0 UNITS
Total Daily Results: -24.00 units
*See Glossary for details to help explain terms and other recent model changes.
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