August 31, 2023 NCAAF College Football Betting Cards deta
Alright I still didn’t get around to spending as much time as I desired on a Football model. But I started digging in around 5 today and I think I came up with something good that I like for this 1st full week. According to 24/7 sports the top teams have the best recruiting star classes typically. I used their data to rank every team based on their roster’s and gave various bonuses for 5, 4, + 3 star ranked players. This should be a nice system to start the year as I’m excited to see if Deion Sanders could really turn Colorado around with all the transfers he acquired. Should be an interesting setup.
Also this backtested model to last week would’ve caught the Jstate and Umass wins.
Season Tracking:
I’m using a starting bankroll of $1,000 to start the season here. I don’t plan on replacing this with extra funds during the season, so this is all we will be playing with.
1 unit bets equal to $10 as my baseline bet for each game This money equivalent will not change throughout the season on what my units are worth. But the Unit sizes will be adjusted accordingly based on bankroll performance and model confidence.
In week 0 I went 1-1 and lost 0.2 units or $2.19 to be exact. Today I’m continuing to bet 1 unit only on games.
Today’s card:
- The card today features 3 ML and 3 spread bets.
- I’m not sure how to properly evaluate the spread bets, but based on the WP% I felt confident on taking these 3 games at the points being offered for -110 each. I’ll have to do further research on this, but I liked what my data in Wk0 said so far on taking the points on teams with similar WP%/Spread profiles.
- Uconn isn’t likely to win today, but the odds are juicy and Draftkings is offering a No Sweat to cover it. So it’s a freeroll for me here.
Lastly I’m doing a Round Robin on all 6 bets here using picks of 2 for a total of 0.5 units or $5.10 to be exact.
DAILY CARD:
*See Glossary for details to help explain terms and other recent model changes.
___________________________________
___
