- Check out the full season 2023 MLB Betting Results
August 26, 2023 MLB Baseball Betting Cards details:
No Model changes today.
Big day yesterday, hit 3-1 and even the Reds tried to comeback from down 10-4 to end game at 10-8. Either way it was a very solid day.
Also good pass on the Rockies as they blew another lead in the 8th inning. According to ESPN this is the first time since the 1970 Montreal Expos that a team has lost 5 leads/ties in the 8th inning in a row. The adjustor is really starting to hit the Fade dial on them now. They have +245 today (before FINAL) and the model says its unqualified and needs +275 to make it today.
Also I mentioned this yesterday, be on the look out, I’ll be kicking off the College Football season with some action today. I still don’t have anything setup at all currently and I usually bet low to kick off a new sport season. I expect to have something by first kickoff before 2, ideally an hour before so more noon or 1 is my goal.
Unit Size Adjustment:
- Yesterday’s big win finally got the bankroll above 40 units profit. This means there are now 140+ units in the bankroll which is greater than 35 games of churn when set to 4 units.
- The current bet size will now be reset to 4 units with a churn level at 36.6 games.
- The unit sizing strategy of the current mdel is to raise the units up when the total bankroll (100 starting units + Profit) is greater than 35 times the next unit size level. If the bankroll drops under 30 units of the current size it will then be reset to the next available lower unit size level greater than 35 times of game churn.
- The new base of 4 units bet per game means that a drop down in unit size will occur if the bankroll profit drops under 20 units or it will rise up to 5 units bet per game once the profit gets above 175 units.
- 120 – 175 total bankroll is the current 4 unit bankroll range
- I’ve also mentioned that the Round Robins will be the rounded equivalent of 10% of the MoneyLine betting card each day. The higher base units will provide an increase here as more units are being bet on the ML card each day. I have an idea to raise the percentage range up in the same way that the base units are rewarded, but insteast having it scale based on the Profit of the RR cards alone. I’m thinking if I can get the RR profit to 10+ units I will raise the bet size of the RRs up to 20%. Still a ways to go on these, but that’s the plan for RRs with 10% being the absolute floor.
- Again I will stress that Parlays, and Round Robins are just packages of Parlays, are a way to provide leverage to the daily card betting strategy. If the daily cards are profitable than RRs will be even more profitable. The current records shows them to be unproftable as I lost over 10 units on them to start the month when I was betting about 3 units per RR package and went through a terrible losing streak overall. Since that string of losses I’ve reduced my bet sizes down to 1 unit mainly and have been able to recapture almost all of the previous RR losses with just a 1/3 of the bet amount in about the same time frame.
Today’s card:
- It’s a low volume weeked with only one game currently qualifying for today, the red hot Nats.
- I’ll check back again around noon and do a final sweep around 2 if not all games are available by then. Currently 3 games are missing lines and I’m looking for 4 games minimum for today’s card.
Last checked @ 2:40 PM
CARD is FINAL!
- KCR and DET added late
- Also CLE added late as STRETCH bet to get 4 games on card for the day.
- RR placed for 4 games,
- 2 units
- 6 combinations of 2
- 0.333 units per combination
DAILY CARD:
ROUND ROBIN:
- RR total profit = -2.00 Units
Total Daily Results: -7.00 units
*See Glossary for details to help explain terms and other recent model changes.
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