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August 2, 2023 MLB Baseball Betting Cards details:

No changes to the model today.

Just like that, all the success from the day prior evaporates as the card was swept 0-5 yesterday. The only way to wash away the bad here is to keep trudging forward with a new bet card.

Also I want to highlight the backtested data for Model 9.4.

  • The Runts only bet type shows to be a profitable backtested strategy. It’s just off to a rocky start here.
  • In June the backtested data shows June started off with -46 units on the first 17 games of the month. After that point it shot forward and never looked back that month.
  • August it is starting off with -35 units on 5 games and I believe in the sample size of the backtested data to turn things around.

  • These are backtested at 7 units per game, meaning there are 256 games here for the 1792 units bet. This ship will turn in August.

Key Data for today:

  • 15 available MLB games to bet today
  • Threshold of 4 games (25%) minimum will be bet

Current Missing Lines/Close Lines:

These are games missing lines currently or games that I’m looking to check back on as the best lines I’ve found so far are close to qualifying for a bet. The line indicated is what will qualify the bet, parentheses is the closest odds I’ve found.

0 game missing lines:

Close lines (eROI 8%-13%):

  • None

Last checked @ 1 PM

CARD is FINAL!

  • The threshold of 4 games for the Daily card has been met.
  • The Round Robin has been placed using the first 4 games qualified for the card.
  • CLE came in under, nothing new will be added. Card is Final.

DAILY CARD:

ROUND ROBIN:

Will be the Top 4 games in the Daily card based on ML Odds, shaded in light blue on card

  • Game Selection: 4 Games – OAK, COL, KCR, ARI
  • Parlay Size: Combinations of 2
  • Wager: 3 Units total/ 0.5 Units per combination
  • Max Potential Payout: 24.38

Round Robin Results: Won $0, Total payout of $0, Profit of $-3.00

Total Daily Results: -12.1 units

*See Glossary for details to help explain terms and other recent model changes.

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