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August 16, 2023 MLB Baseball Betting Cards details:

No Model Changes today.

  • A disastrous day where a 0-7 loss took us straight to the cleaners.
  • Most of the games were close throughout their game so I can only laugh at the overall results and march forward

Round Robins:

Yesterday I opted to place two separate cards of RRs due to the higher game volume on the card. This is optimal play to split RRs into smaller cards as it allows variance to do it’s things and turn an overall 5-3 day into possibly a 4-0 RR card and a 1-3 RR card for a massive payday on the complete card.

The downside is that it can be a bit more time consuming to split cards and I need a ton of volume for it make sense. One or two cards a day are not going to justify it for me so I’m going to opt to take a more efficient route with RRs going forward.

I will place every game on the card into a single RR ticket with picks of 2.

  • This change simplifies the setup and display of my RR selections as you will now know that it consists of every game on the card.
  • The only dynamic factor will be determining the overall bet size per per combination as I want to keep that close to a set amount in ratio to the MoneyLine card total.
  • Going forward the RRs will not be placed until every game has been placed for the day and then I will look to create a RR card where the total bet amount is equal to a whole unit amount closest to 10% of the MoneyLine card value.
    • For example. A 7 game ML card with 21 units wagered is placed for the day. 10% is 2.1 units so I’ll round to 2 total units as the amount targeted for the RR card. On a 7 game RR with picks of 2 that is equal to 21 different combinations at 0.095 units apiece.

Again RRs are a way to add leverage to the card each day. With a little luck on achieving over a majority of the picks each day, it should accelerate the bankroll upward as the postive odds bets compound further. The problem is that we have to shift through a lot of losses between each of these big wins. If the ML bets are profitable, which backtesting shows they are, then as long as the trend continues the Parlays should be even more profitable in the long run. Risk management is key, hence the conservative bet amount each day on RRs to keep us in the game as long as possible.

Today’s Slate:

  • 4 games currently missing
  • Will have final card before first game starts at 1:10 PM – FINAL

Last checked @ 10:00 AM

CARD is FINAL!

  • RR placed for 8 games,
    • 2.02 units
    • 28 combinations of 2
    • 0.072 units per combination

DAILY CARD:

ROUND ROBIN:

    • RR total profit = -0.79 Units

Total Daily Results: -2.35 units

*See Glossary for details to help explain terms and other recent model changes.

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By Taylor Moore

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