- Check out the full season 2023 MLB Betting Results
August 13, 2023 MLB Baseball Betting Cards details:
No Model changes today.
State of the Union:
- Things have gone negative. It’s a terrible time for the model, but it’s time for a fresh perspective and start anew.
- Yesterday I looked around overall theory and not so much the model. I’m trying to gather a fresh perspective of goals to achieve. I think I’m on the right path still where we want the best odds possible, but they need to be able to achieve win rates better than their odds. The golden rule of sports betting, win more than the odds.
- Below is the current breakdown of the season so far based on various bet strategies throughout the year. The RUNTS only strategy seems to be the surefire way forward as it was a combination of everything else that sunk the overall profit to negative territory.
- Again I’m continuing to look for a fresh perspective on how to best maintain profitability and hopefully increase it going forward.
- A 5% ROI on the RUNTS only is a pretty great return in the world of the sports betting.
- Also it’s nice to see the STRETCH bets have some small profit, despite the small sample size. It’s a way to provide volume to the card each day on bets just outside the qualified RUNTS cutoff.
Bankroll Management:
- I’ve currently been discussing churn as my main bankroll management technique. I like it as a way to scale the bets to the current bankroll size. Recently the churn setup was at 20 games before units were breached and had to be reduced. This seemed like a comfortable spot, but the past few weeks have been humbling and shown that it is too risky.
- Going forward the bankroll churn levels will rise back up to 30 games minimum where each reset of units needs to take place at 35+ games.
- The current bankroll size at 98 units or so is equal to 19.6 games on the current 5 unit bet size. The leap to 35 games would be 2.8 units. Since I’m not doing decimal units on bet sizes I’m rounding down and the new unit sizes will be 2 units until the next level up can be applied.
- It could be a relatively short period at 2 units as I’m looking for 35 games for each unit level before moving up and at 3 units thats equal to 105 total units, just 7 away from current standings.
- The one thing I don’t like about the churn management is that my bankroll usage each day drops. I started the season betting volume, but its not a smart ROI move to have volume for volume sake if you end up in the same spot (also more time consuming). I’m continuing to research ways to increase volume as that seems like it will be the key as the risk is too high to go lower than 30 game churn.
- The bankroll is a tool and it feels wasted to only be using a small portion of it each day. During college basketball season I was able to churn through my bankroll in full each day and sometimes twice on a day based on the volume and timing of games available.
Today’s Slate:
- There were a lack of qualifying games today and I’m committed to playing a minimum of 25% of each day’s slate. As a result there are two STRETCH bets.
- The Round Robin has been reduced to 1 unit total to represent the 2 unit based bet, as I only want about half a game of leverage on Round Robin’s so they don’t sink the card on their own.
- I’ve placed the 1 unit Round Robin bet on the 4 games for today’s card. – 6 combos @ .167 units each
Last checked @ 11:30 AM
CARD is FINAL!
DAILY CARD:
ROUND ROBIN:
- Bet: 1.02 units total
- Picks: CLE/COL/ARI/NYM
- combos of 2 for 1.67 units each
- Profit: +1.50 UNITS
Total Daily Results: +7.32 units
*See Glossary for details to help explain terms and other recent model changes.
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