- Check out the full season 2023 MLB Betting Results
August 12, 2023 MLB Baseball Betting Cards details:
No Model changes today.
Yesterday Recap:
- Again can’t catch a break. Cleveland looking to do one of the impossible comebacks that we often are on the wrong end of, instead they teased a 4 run comeback to squander it instantly in the 9th.
- Choppy seas is all I can say, again the model would be running 37 units better if not for the 5 game Fade Oakland strategy that was implemented last week (assuming 7 units bet for Oakland each game).
Model recap:
- Overall the the current model shows strong backtested data and I’m willing to ride this out for awhile.
- Here’s the backtested games data since May. I scaled the bets down to 1 unit. August so far represents a little more than half of a full months total bet games and its only 16% of the full season data since May which is showing a 16.9% ROI.
- With such a strong sample size before this month, I’m not willing to concede that the tide of MLB betting has shifted dramatically to say a change in direction is needed to capture the current trends. Possibly if the overall ROI since May drops under 10%, but would require at least another 10 units lost over the next 100 bets. So I doubt it happens this month at the current choppy pace, which I’m expecting to reverse trend back to profitability.
Future Changes:
- I do have some ideas I’m willing to test if I find some time in the next few days. I’d like to look at overall Runs Scored and Runs Allowed over the Last 30/ 60 days. Reviewing the Fade Oakland strategy they’ve been a big outlier on this front on the season overall, but the tide is changing for them recently where they are somewhat respectable the L30 on the Runs Allowed front.
- The current model trusts Fangraphs Win Projections and adjusts the L60 days to match up to their actual win records for each team. But getting a little bit more granular at the Runs Scored/Allowed level may help to identify teams that are just not on the same level as another.
- I also may want to review specific pitchers, but that would require a massive build and data tracking of each player that I may want to push to next season as we are reaching the end of the 2023 season. As I’ve never felt 100% comfortable with trusting Fangraphs WP% without fully knowing it’s components. The adjustor helps tailor it, but I’m at the whims of the unknown ingredients within it.
- I feel like there is a heavy emphasis on long term data sets that I’m not in full agreement with. Players change and go through spurts. Lorenzen as an example is probably a pitcher valued more on his past year or two of work vs more of what he’s done so far this season. Also team synergy just starts to click, like Baltimore which is consistently given underdog odds despite their constant overachieving performances.
- There’s ideas to tinker the model further, but the question is how much further at this point in the season.
Today’s Slate:
- There were a lack of qualifying games today and I’m committed to playing a minimum of 25% of each day’s slate. As a result there is one STRETCH bet.
- I’ve placed the 3 unit Round Robin bet on the 4 games for today’s card.
Last checked @ 3:30 AM
CARD is FINAL!
DAILY CARD:
ROUND ROBIN:
- Bet: 3 units total
- Picks: NYM/DET/LAA/COL
- combos of 2 for 0.5 units each
- Profit: -3.00 UNITS
Total Daily Results: -9.50 units
*See Glossary for details to help explain terms and other recent model changes.
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