- Check out the full season 2023 MLB Betting Results
August 10, 2023 MLB Baseball Betting Cards details:
MODEL 9.6 – FADE OAKLAND REMOVED.
The strategy has taken some bad licks, It’s first five games have been quite unprofitable and after further review I don’t feel comfortable having it. Details to folllow below.
Yesterday Recap:
Things were looking great with the Rockies early yesterday and then they managed to blow a big 4 run lead, tie it, blow it in the 10th, and followup the next batter with a double to save it, and then pitched around some hairy situations to throw it away with an error in the end. This Rockies team is literally Rocky, but the odds are nice and they’ve proven to be a profitable team over the season. Going to have to endure the ups and downs here.
Then tuning into the Rangers game afterwards was just utter disappointment as the game dwindled away with no offense from them. I’ve noticed Gelof from the As has been a recent lightning bolt and he helped push my decision to back off the FADE A’s strategy. This team is still bad, but not as bad as they were earlier this season.
I took a break from watching the night slate as I opted to see Barbie instead (for the 2nd time lol). It’s a pretty hilarious movie, I highly recommend it as a nice break from baseball.
After the movie ended I checked my phone to see an alert that Michael Lorenzen had pitched a No-Hitter. Immediately I knew the Nats bet was sunk, but I wasn’t too mad there as I had Lorenzen on my fantasy team.
- Fun fact, I once played a few hands of poker with Lorenzen at the Reds annual charity poker event back in 2015 or 2016 before I was unceremoniously knocked out (not by him). Dude was very chill and friendly so I’ve appreciated following his career since then . Well hats off to him as he was already having himself quite the year so far and this No-No is a well deserved feather in his cap.
Personal stories aside it looks like the card was saved (somewhat) by the Tigers blowing out the Twins. While the Pirates box score looked like a nail biter along with the Guardians game, so I’m glad I avoided stressing myself further after the afternoon disasters.
Model/August Review:
Things have been bad this month, but the backtested model shows a very strong sample size going back to May with profit. Heck I could go back to season start with the model and there is still decent profit. The start of August was just bad timing and I fully expect the current model to show profit for August in the backtested data.
- Also to blame was my FADE OAKLAND trial. Overall FADE OAKLAND resulted in a 2-3 record for a loss of 12.6 units.
- Worst of all is that I overrode my model with these games as I would’ve bet all 5 games for Oakland instead and would’ve resulted in +24.43 units.
- A 37 unit swing on these 5 games. 😡
- A look closer at Oakland shows I shouldn’t be so pessimistic.
- Yes if you look at the overall season stats for them they are last in Runs Scored at 407, behind Detroit at 443. In Runs Allowed they are last at 685, behind Colorado at 652 and Colorado plays half their games in Colorado lol.
- I always say the trend is your friend if the sample size is reasonable. Well if we look back at just the Last 30 days we see Oakland again ranks last with 78, but just 1 behind Miami’s 79, and 9 behind Arizona. They aren’t too far from the pack anymore in scoring runs. On the Runs Allowed side they find themselves respectfully at 13th lowest during the L30. They are no longer outliers in the bottom of the pack of MLB teams.
- Also to mention they recently called up Gelof who’s got 6 Homeruns with less than 90 PAs so far.
- Things appear to be turning around for Oakland so hopefully I didn’t miss out on all the good things to come after I condemned them post the Dodgers sweep.
Today’s Slate:
Today looked to be a small card as there are only 8 games on the slate, but shockingly 5 of them qualfied. Which will allow a Round Robin to be generated with at least 4 games on the card. Also the Rockies have what looks to be the biggest odds bet of the year with a +310 offering for Kershaw’s return game. Yeah Kershaw is great, but injury returns are always shaky for players so this thing is far from a guarantee for the Dodgers.
- Also based on recent performances, like Pirates jumping all over Strider and Oakland winning yesterday, what further proof do you need to see that MLB is like a coin flip most days?
- My proprietary coin-flip factor in the model helps identify these edges and points out big value opportunites.
- MLB behaving like a coin flip was another factor in my removal of the FADE OAKLAND strategy, as most games were -200 or worse odds. Meaning I would only be grinding out 2 or 3 units of profit at most on each win. So I was potentially staring down the need of 6 straight losses for Oakland to have any hope of recouping my current losses with the strategy. I like having the big money win potential over picking up nickels and dimes that are far from guaranteed.
- I’ve placed the 3 unit Round Robin bet on the top 4 ML ODDS games for today’s card.
Last checked @ 2:00 AM
CARD is FINAL!
DAILY CARD:
ROUND ROBIN:
- Bet: 3 units total
- Picks: PIT/WSN/KCR/COL
- combos of 2 for 0.5 units each
- Profit: -3.00 UNITS
Total Daily Results: -1.20 units
*See Glossary for details to help explain terms and other recent model changes.
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I really think you are on to something here. Any consideration of 2 things. Round Robin the better odds instead of the higher odds. Also, structuring units to less on the larger long shots? I’ve been lurking watching/following you, and I haven’t done any math but it seems this may help?
Thanks for the comment.
I’m not sure how far back you’ve seen here, but on the glossary page I’ve kept kind of a timeline of my model changes throughout the year. I did fluctuate unit sizes for awhile in May and June mostly based on the eROI.
In terms of the Round Robins I view those strictly as a leverage tool. My model throughout the year had been trending profitably until the beginning of this month and with leverage it’s a way to amplify your gains each day. If you go back to the day I started it up, I explained my idea behind their use. https://culturemanor.com/july-31-2023-mlb-daily-sports-betting-card-and-odds/
I’m not sure if you mean the better odds as in teams with negative odds (favorites) or based on my eROI confidence?
I don’t do negative odds as that would be the opposite of the main model output currently.
In regards to eROI confidence I don’t really have much confidence in it. I’m not exactly sure when I dug into it, but I believe it was around 9.0. There’s a problem with the eROIs when they get too high, I would figure most handicappers model’s would behave the same way. As there are various factors we all use including the bookies in setting their lines and determining winners. When my model disagrees largely with the books based on some unknown variable that they are taking into account at a higher weight vs me it’s going to likely behave a little weird. Also the sample sizes start shrinking the higher you go, so it’s hard to put true determinative value out there as nobody that I’m aware of has been able to model sports perfectly. The eROI is not always trustworthy. I can only review backtested data to review profitability based on known data at the time of each prior bet. The current model setup shows maximum profit potential at the current cutoff at 13%+ eROI. I used to hardcap the eROI to account for the discrepancy issue between books on certain variables, but that ran counterintuitive to trying to find the best line possible for a bet if it made it unqualified.
In the aspect of eROI confidence it’s kind of hard to tell which bet is truly an unworthy longshot or not. I’d probably want to use something more concrete like current season win record or Last 30/60 days win record for a team to be a concrete data set to tell me, this team only wins 30% of it’s games they get lower units and this team wins 60% they get more. That may be a noble idea worth looking into and reviewing it’s performance in backtesting. I’ve been kind of stagnant on the model changes recently as I have confidence in the backtested setup in its current form and I’m waiting for the tide to turn back to profitability before trying to experment further. Also the season is relatively nearing it’s end so I’m also kind of content on coasting as College Football starts up soon and will be an enticing new adventure.