April 30th, 2023 – MLB Daily Sports Betting Card

Model 4.4 Update:

Minor update to model. There have been a few games recently where teams have high +50% WP but have missed the card inclusion due to negative eROI. These teams have won handily and the model is most likely undervaluing them. I’ve upped my WP% adjustment to scale up to a 12% difference for Win/Loss records between teams across the league the Last 14 days. Previous Model versions had this adjustment set to 10%.

__________________________________

Glossary of terms:

• WP% = Win Probability %
  • This is the key to my model, I source these typically from Fangraphs as they do a pretty accurate job based on backtesting of past data. I also add my own adjustments to make them more accurate. The data as a whole is accurate, but at a team level it has some variation. My adjustment adds or subtracts to the WP based on winning records of teams playing.
• ML Odds = The Moneyline odds that the sportsbook is offering for the bet
• BE ML = Breakeven Moneyline
  • This is a calculation to convert the Moneyline into a percentage format to highlight how often the bet would have to win to show a breakeven in money won/loss on a bet with the given odds.
• eROI = expected Return on Investment
  • This is the expected Return on Investment a bet would return overtime if we were able to consistently place a similar bet. The formula is WP/BE ML.
  • For example a bet with an eROI of 10% would be expected to show a net profit of 10% over the true odds. If a bet had a WP = 50%, meaning it would win half the time, we would expect to show a profit of 10% on our bets if we won 5 and lost 5.
• Base and Edge = are terms I’m using to determine the appropriate unit amount to bet
  • Base = (WP%-40%)/5%. It is rounded down to each whole interval so that only bets with WP 45% or greater will be eligible for a bet. Maximum of 3 units. (New rules to only bet teams with WP 50%+ skip level 1 here, until a Unit Value adjustment occurs)
  • Edge= awards a bonus unit for each eROI / 5% > 1. Maximum of 2 units.

______________________________

Also I posted a betting card for The Mexico Open PGA Tournament this weekend. 10/11 picks made the Cut into the back half of the weekend for Top 5 placement bets. If you are into golf betting, considering it, or just curious about how I apply my betting strategies to a different sport I highly suggest you check it out.