April 29th, 2023 – MLB Daily Sports Betting Card

*Final Results

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• Saturday April 29th’s MLB Daily Betting Card features 7 games for a total of 28 units bet with a max payout of 49.62 units.
  • The bets are spread across the full day with the Baltimore Orioles hitting it off first with a start time of 12:10 PM today.

• Yesterday’s 4/28/23 Card resulted in a win of +7.06 Units on a 4-1 record
  • (Baltimore rained out and removed off card).

• The full season 2023 MLB Betting Results is now at a Net Profit of +57.59 Units with a 7.8% ROI.

No changes to model today. Running back most of the same picks as yesterday, as will tend to happen from time to time with dominant series matchups.

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Also I posted a betting card for The Mexico Open PGA Tournament this weekend. 10/11 picks made the Cut into the back half of the weekend for Top 5 placement bets. If you are into golf betting, considering it, or just curious about how I apply my betting strategies to a different sport I highly suggest you check it out.

Glossary of terms:

• WP% = Win Probability %
  • This is the key to my model, I source these typically from Fangraphs as they do a pretty accurate job based on backtesting of past data. I also add my own adjustments to make them more accurate. The data as a whole is accurate, but at a team level it has some variation. My adjustment adds or subtracts to the WP based on winning records of teams playing.
• ML Odds = The Moneyline odds that the sportsbook is offering for the bet
• BE ML = Breakeven Moneyline
  • This is a calculation to convert the Moneyline into a percentage format to highlight how often the bet would have to win to show a breakeven in money won/loss on a bet with the given odds.
• eROI = expected Return on Investment
  • This is the expected Return on Investment a bet would return overtime if we were able to consistently place a similar bet. The formula is WP/BE ML.
  • For example a bet with an eROI of 10% would be expected to show a net profit of 10% over the true odds. If a bet had a WP = 50%, meaning it would win half the time, we would expect to show a profit of 10% on our bets if we won 5 and lost 5.
• Base and Edge = are terms I’m using to determine the appropriate unit amount to bet
  • Base = (WP%-40%)/5%. It is rounded down to each whole interval so that only bets with WP 45% or greater will be eligible for a bet. Maximum of 3 units. (New rules to only bet teams with WP 50%+ skip level 1 here, until a Unit Value adjustment occurs)
  • Edge= awards a bonus unit for each eROI / 5% > 1. Maximum of 2 units.

Model 4.3 Details:

• The WP% threshold was raised to 50%, meaning no team will be considered for a daily bet unless the model projects them at 50%+
• Limited the max unit bet to 5 total and there is only one way to achieve that if both criteria below are maxed out
  • The Base Unit is now set to only provide 3 maximum units, one for each 5% level above 45% (due to WP needing to be over 50% this means all bets will get a minimum of 2 Units. I will look to adjust this up to 50% as the floor for base units when I rase my Unit Value in the future)
  • The Edge Unit is now providing up to 2 units maximum, one for every 5%.
• These unit thresholds should keep bets closer together in sizing so that one doesn’t completely sink the card if it loses.