April 27th, 2023 – MLB Daily Betting Card

• Thursday April 27th’s MLB Betting Card features 7 games for a total of 21 units bet with a max payout of 40.09 units.

• Yesterday’s 4/26/23 Card resulted in a win of +3.99 Units on a 5-3 record.

• The full season 2023 MLB Betting Results is now at a Net Profit of +49.21 Units with a 7.1% ROI.

Today’s card has nothing special to note. I tried to get the card out earlier than normal, meaning not all games were complete for previous day. Something I’ll likely start doing more often to get these cards out earlier so that you can best take advantage of lines if you decide to follow my plays.

Also I just posted a betting card for The Mexico Open PGA Tournament this weekend. If you are into golf betting, considering it, or just curious about how I apply my betting strategies to a different sport I highly suggest you check it out. Tee Times are early Thursday morning to kick it off.

*Final Results

Glossary of terms:

• WP% = Win Probability %
  • This is the key to my model, I source these typically from Fangraphs as they do a pretty accurate job based on backtesting of past data. I also add my own adjustments to make them more accurate. The data as a whole is accurate, but at a team level it has some variation. My adjustment adds or subtracts to the WP based on winning records of teams playing.
• ML Odds = The Moneyline odds that the sportsbook is offering for the bet
• BE ML = Breakeven Moneyline
  • This is a calculation to convert the Moneyline into a percentage format to highlight how often the bet would have to win to show a breakeven in money won/loss on a bet with the given odds.
• eROI = expected Return on Investment
  • This is the expected Return on Investment a bet would return overtime if we were able to consistently place a similar bet. The formula is WP/BE ML.
  • For example a bet with an eROI of 10% would be expected to show a net profit of 10% over the true odds. If a bet had a WP = 50%, meaning it would win half the time, we would expect to show a profit of 10% on our bets if we won 5 and lost 5.
• Base and Edge = are terms I’m using to determine the appropriate unit amount to bet
  • Base = (WP%-40%)/5%. It is rounded down to each whole interval so that only bets with WP 45% or greater will be eligible for a bet.
  • Edge= awards a bonus unit if eROI/10% > 1