April 25th, 2023 – MLB Daily Betting Card

• Tuesday April 25th’s MLB Betting Card features 7 games bet for a total of 25 units bet with a max payout of 48.46 11 games bet for a total of 44 units bet with a max payout of 79.16 units.
• Yesterday’s 4/24/23 Card ended with a profit of +5.62 Units on a 5-2 record.
• The full season 2023 MLB Betting Results is now up to a Net Profit of +65.24 Units with a 10.4% ROI.

There’s a full slate of games today, but I could only find value here on 7 of the games 11 of the games.

Two of the games tonight, Nats/Mets and St. Louis/San Fran, weren’t posted yet. If lines are favorable they may be added so check back here this afternoon before game time for any updates.

*4 more games were added to the card after a mid-afternoon review.

• New York Mets added as Fangraphs has WP at 62.3% under the assumption Butto will pitch(I make a small adjustment to WP based on 2023 Win/Loss records of teams) . I almost scratched this game due to the unknown pitching factor, but even if it’s not Butto they really couldn’t do much worse than him pitching wise as he was just sent down to the minors last week. Also it’s against the Nationals, one of the weakest teams in the League.
• Atlanta had the line move down a bit to show some value for a bet.
• Arizona also enough line movement for value.
• San Francisco Giants were delayed to being on the board, but the line looks very favorable for a bet today with an eROI of 9.6%

Oakland provides tremendous value here with an eROI of 25.2%. Should be an exciting game and great value boost to us if it hits. They did just win 11-10 win over the Angels on Monday and teams have done no worse than 26.5% (Detroit 2003) on a full MLB season this millenium so there is some level of parity to be expected here.

*Final Results:

• 44.0 units bet | Net profit -20.02 Units | -45.5% ROI

A brutal day with a 20 unit loss. The card was obliterated in the early games with no hope of profit with the final 3 night games. Giants led most game then let it go and then with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th down a run they hit a walk off HR to salvage 7.81 units off this card. A very terrible day, with some introspective changes coming for the next card.

Model 4.1:

Small adjustment to recent change in model to flag high edge games, moved flag from 6+ units to 7+ units. 6 is getting up there as too risky, but there was room to raise the limit. This was due to a lack of bigger unit plays today and mostly with the safety net provided by overall profit this season as I’m looking to soon raise my overall unit value up from the base unit value of $1.