April 23rd, 2023 – MLB Daily Betting Card

*Risk management changes, see notes to Model change below*

We are starting to get things rolling with the site here. Today I will be betting the biggest total Unit amount in a single day with 51.5 Units, 13/15 of the MLB games are on today’s card also.

1st a recap, yesterday’s 4/22/23 card was profitable with a 4-4 record thanks to the top 4 unit plays being the winner with +8.48 units won on 35 total units bet.

The full season 2023 MLB Betting Results is now up to a Net Profit of +58.14 Units on 548.5 Units bet for a 10.6% ROI.

*Final Results: 51.5 units bet | Net profit +1.49 Units | 2.9% ROI

Model 4.0:

You may have noticed that the Model number has changed. From time to time I’ll make some changes to the current model to ideally improve the profitability going forward. The key change in Model 4.0 from 3.5 is that I added a risk management factor. The model is set to scale up unit sizes due to a combination of higher Win Probabilty and Edge over the offered book odds, but today when placing bets some looked a little too risky.

“Always know if the juice is worth the squeeze” – Kelly | The Girl Next Door

That line from Timothy Olyphant is applicable here as the juice doesn’t look to be worth the squeeze in the Texas Rangers game today (and to a degree the Phillies game). The best odds I could find for the Rangers were -330 giving us a Breakeven of 76.7% an the Win Probability (WP) today is 79.2%, an expected Return on Investment (eROI) of 79.2%/76.7% = 3.3%

Assuming the Rangers win today, and the likelihood is quite high, then the model suggests I risk 8 units to win 10.42 back, or just a profit of 2.42. Now in the 1/5 chance the Rangers lose to the Athletics, like they did two days ago on Friday, then I would be out those 8 units. The math says in the long run it’s a good bet due to the positive eROI, but with big bets we don’t always have the runway of the long run. If you are casino with a consistent stream of customer’s taking that bet sure, but if your bankroll is just 100 units or so then that 8 unit loss could be pretty devastating if you lose a few in untimely succession.

Second games like this for the Rangers with 75%+ WP are quite rare. According to Fangraphs data from 2022 there were 4,940 individual MLB games from a single team perspective. Only 38 of those games had a WP for a team higher than 72.5%. Thats less than 1% of all games. To make matters worse those teams won only 24 of those games for a true winning % of 63% in those games, a negative result of ~10% to our 72.5% baseline.

Back to the risk management change, I’ve adjusted the model to flag these type of games if the eROI is less than 5% as anything lower means the juice is not worth the squeeze to me. And in fact I’m going to go the reverse route and take advantage of that negative return in such high WP listed games and take a small bet on the opposite team at great odds. Hence why you see Oakland listed as a pick today for 1.5 units. If they do happen to win I’ll make 4.43 units in profit, which is much more than the 2.42 units an 8 unit bet on Texas would’ve given us and for less than 1/4th the risk. The other great thing is that if this bet loses, which it is most likely, it will be a small blip on the season results as most of my bets are at least 2-3 units each day, Lastly it should also not be a big leak if it does prove to lose more than is profitable as these opportunites are rare in a given MLB season.

I may look to up the eROI flag on these high WP unit bets to 10%, but I’m letting the Phillies give it a go today. But in regards to Oakland and a small flier to win a decent amount of units I do believe the juice is worth the squeeze.

Good luck!

P.S. If you are interested in Golf betting be sure to check out my Zurich Classic betting card. I’ve found Golf to be a nice sweat over a 4 day weekend with something interesting to add up to the mix in rooting interest on Sunday afternoons.